The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, February 4 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will continue today under the significant push of cold air from the north, but temperatures will begin the slow climb out of below freezing conditions. In both Oklahoma and Texas mostly to partly cloudy skies will occur with relatively dry conditions except over the central Edwards Plateau. There is a 20% to 30% chance of snow over the northern areas of the central Plateau and up to a 50% chance of snow and rain mix southward in the San Antonio region. High temperatures today will be in the lower 30’s in Oklahoma and in the upper 30’s to just getting to 40 in the southern communities around the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the southwest in Oklahoma, and from the northwest across most of central and east central Texas. To the west, winds will be from the west. Winds will be light to moderate. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will exist from the north to the south across the Edwards Plateau and in the communities along the eastern edge of the Plateau. Mostly clear skies will be present throughout the western area. Temperatures will be in the mid to low 20s across the region overnight with winds primarily from the west at low to moderate conditions. Tomorrow the areas of Oklahoma will be partly cloudy whereas the rest of the forecast area will see mostly sunny to sunny skies. Temperatures will rebound to seasonal conditions with most areas over the Edwards Plateau in the 50’s and 60’s. From the Dallas/Fort Worth area northward expect slightly cooler conditions with forecast high temperatures continuing in the 30’s to 40’s.. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will occur from Dallas northward. There will be a 20% chance of snow in central Oklahoma. Further south clear skies will be present with low temperatures in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest and west.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move southeast on northwest winds and then turn northeasterly on southwestern winds overnight. The southwest flow remains in the forecast tomorrow. The air remains cold and dense moving along the ground. Light to moderate winds drive the atmosphere northeastward during the forecast period. There is no buoyancy whatsoever to the atmosphere with the lingering cold temperatures region wide, no pollen is expected to be shed today or tomorrow. Temperatures across the region will be cold throughout the forecast period. Warmer conditions appear to be building towards the weekend


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions will remain today and tomorrow and results in poor conditions for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shedding pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. A weather system moves across the region today bringing a chance of snow for the north central Texas region. The snow conditions may leak northward into the area where the southern Oklahoma population of junipers grows. Winds will remain light and variable today, tonight and tomorrow. The cold temperatures will last for at least today and tomorrow, although warming is occurring further south across Texas, especially tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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