The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, February 4 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will continue today under the significant push of cold air from the north, but temperatures will begin the slow climb out of below freezing conditions. In both Oklahoma and Texas mostly to partly cloudy skies will occur with relatively dry conditions except over the central Edwards Plateau. There is a 20% to 30% chance of snow over the northern areas of the central Plateau and up to a 50% chance of snow and rain mix southward in the San Antonio region. High temperatures today will be in the lower 30’s in Oklahoma and in the upper 30’s to just getting to 40 in the southern communities around the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the southwest in Oklahoma, and from the northwest across most of central and east central Texas. To the west, winds will be from the west. Winds will be light to moderate. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will exist from the north to the south across the Edwards Plateau and in the communities along the eastern edge of the Plateau. Mostly clear skies will be present throughout the western area. Temperatures will be in the mid to low 20s across the region overnight with winds primarily from the west at low to moderate conditions. Tomorrow the areas of Oklahoma will be partly cloudy whereas the rest of the forecast area will see mostly sunny to sunny skies. Temperatures will rebound to seasonal conditions with most areas over the Edwards Plateau in the 50’s and 60’s. From the Dallas/Fort Worth area northward expect slightly cooler conditions with forecast high temperatures continuing in the 30’s to 40’s.. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will occur from Dallas northward. There will be a 20% chance of snow in central Oklahoma. Further south clear skies will be present with low temperatures in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest and west.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move towards the southeast on northwest winds over most of the Plateau and from the west in the western areas of the Plateau. Overnight the winds become more westerly. Today there is a chance of snow across the eastern Plateau spilling into the edge communities. Temperatures will remain in the 30’s in most areas but along the southern Plateau edge 40’s will be recorded. In these communities precipitation will fall as rain. The southwest flow remains in the forecast tomorrow with winds becoming light to moderate. Tomorrow night mostly clear to partly clear skies will occur. Temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s along the edge communities. Winds will return to light conditions and stay from the west to southwest. The air remains cold and dense moving along the ground. There is no buoyancy whatsoever to the atmosphere with the lingering cold temperatures region wide, no pollen is expected to be shed today or tomorrow. Temperatures across the region will be cold throughout the forecast period. Warmer conditions appear to be building towards the weekend

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions will remain today and tomorrow and result in poor conditions for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. A weather system moves across the region today bringing a chance of snow for the north central Texas region. Winds will remain light to moderate today, tonight and tomorrow. The cold temperatures will last for at least today then significant warming begins with tomorrow’s temperatures 10 to 20 degrees higher. Warm conditions are expected for Sunday as well.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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