The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth




San Antonio

Low to Moderate


Date Issued: 5 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, February 5 TX/OK: Conditions across the region will continue to warm today from the significant push of cold air from the north earlier in the week. In Oklahoma partly cloudy skies will occur with relatively dry conditions. In Texas mostly sunny conditions to sunny skies will prevail. The area will be dry overall with high temperatures in the upper 30s in north Texas but in the 50s on the Edwards Plateau region and San Antonio possibly making it into the low 60s. Winds will be from the southwest across the area. Light winds to the north and light to moderate winds across the remainder of the region. To the west winds will pick up being light to moderate. Tonight most areas will be in the upper 20s under mostly to partly cloudy skies in Oklahoma and south towards Dallas. Further south mostly clear conditions will prevail with low temperatures in the upper 20s across the Plateau and mid- to lower 30s in the edge communities surrounding the Plateau. Tomorrow the areas from Dallas north will continue to have a mix of winter weather with the chance of freezing rain and snow in and around Dallas to a 30% to 40% chance of snow towards Oklahoma City. Winds will be light towards the north and light to moderate further south. The winds will be from the west to begin the day shifting to the northwest going into the evening. The chance of rain and snow will extend into northwest and west Texas as similar conditions will occur in San Angelo. The Edwards Plateau region will return to warmer conditions but most other areas will remain in the upper 40s. The edge communities will be in the 50s and low 60s in the southern areas. Winds will be gaining strength from the west across the Plateau and from the northwest in the west Texas area. In the edge communities gusts around 30 miles per hour are expected. Tomorrow night cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will occur across the region. There will be a slight cooling with temperatures well entrenched into the mid-20s.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move towards the east and northeast on south and southwest winds over most the Plateau. Winds will be light to moderate, but with cold temperatures remaining across the region the air will be dense and travel at ground level over most of its pathway. Overnight the winds become more westerly. As the trajectories move over eastern Texas a more northwesterly flow moves them towards the southeastern corner of Texas and into Louisiana. Today temperatures will remain close to freezing across north Texas, but warming will occur to the south along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Most areas in Texas south of the Dallas region will get into the 50s warming into the low 60s around the San Antonio area. Tonight temperatures will be in 20s in most areas with low 30s in the edge communities. Winds will continue from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow there is a chance of precipitation across the northern areas of Texas and into Oklahoma. The chance of precipitation extends across the pan handle of Texas and southwards along the Plateau. Except for the edge communities, most areas will remain in the low to mid 40s. The edge communities will return to the mid 50s to low 60s towards the south.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Warming conditions will occur today and tomorrow and result in the potential for moderate conditions for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Further north temperatures will remain at or below the threshold for pollen release. It is unclear at this time if the severe weather significantly affected cones that have yet to shed pollen. Previously there has been a loss of cones especially during freezing rain and sleet conditions In addition poor conditions will occur for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. A weather system moves across the region tomorrow bringing a chance of snow for the north central Texas region. Winds will remain light to moderate today and tonight with increased gustiness and moderate conditions tomorrow. The cold nighttime temperatures will last for at least today and tomorrow with most areas in the twenties overnight.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.





Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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