The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 6 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, February 6 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will continue to warm today from cold conditions earlier in the week. In Oklahoma cloudy conditions will occur today with a significant chance for rain and snow. Temperatures will be in the low 40’s to the north and as high as 50 degrees across north Texas with light winds from the north. The chance of precipitation will continue into this evening with temperatures dropping into the 20’s to the north and the lower 30’s in the Dallas/Fort Worth metro region. Tomorrow, partly cloudy skies are expected with high temperatures in the lower 40’s and light winds from the northwest. Tomorrow night will see partial clearing with temperatures in the upper 20’s and winds switching from the north to a southeasterly flow. Further south in Texas today, warm temperatures are expected with conditions in the 50’s across the Edwards Plateau, and in the 60’s to low 70’s in the edge communities from Austin towards San Antonio. To the north temperatures will drop towards northern Texas. Winds will be light to moderate from the west today along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau, and from the northwest at moderate to strong conditions in the western side of the area. Some areas of west Texas may also be affected by the system moving through to the north as San Angelo has a 30% chance of rain today. Overnight, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will occur with temperatures dropping into the 20’s to the west and into the mid- to upper-30’s in the Edwards Plateau edge communities. Tomorrow, sunny and mostly sunny skies return with temperatures cooling by five or ten degrees. Areas across the forecast region will return into the 50’s and 60’s. The cooling will be brought into the area with dominant north and northwesterly winds at light to moderate conditions. Tomorrow night will be partly cloudy with lows mostly in the low 30’s. Winds tomorrow night will begin to shift towards a more southerly flow. This will begin in the western regions then southeastern winds will build towards the eastern edge communities.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south on northerly winds today and tomorrow morning. The air remains cold and dense moving along the ground. Light to moderate winds drive the atmosphere southward during today’s forecast period, a slight shift towards a northwesterly flow will move the atmosphere towards southeast Texas before it moves out over the Gulf of Mexico. A weather system will move through the region today and tonight providing precipitation across the area where the junipers grow. Today the chance of precipitation is 70%. That chance of precipitation declines to 20% tonight and then moves out of the area for tomorrow and tomorrow night. There is no buoyancy whatsoever to the atmosphere with the lingering cold temperatures region wide, no pollen is expected to be shed today or tomorrow. Temperatures across the region will be cold throughout the forecast period. Warmer conditions are building to the south but there is no indication of their movement northward.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions and the chance of precipitation will remain today and tomorrow and results in poor conditions for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shedding pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region and light winds throughout the forecast. A weather system will move across the region today and tonight bringing a chance of snow for the Oklahoma region extending into the north Texas region. A 70% chance of snowfall is expected today and tonight in the area where the junipers grow. Winds will remain light and variable today, tonight and tomorrow. The cold temperatures will last for at least today and tomorrow, although warming is occurring further south across Texas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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