The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, February 7 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will continue to recover from the recent cold event last week. In Oklahoma partly cloudy conditions will occur today with temperatures in the low 40’s. Winds will be from the northwest at light conditions. Overnight the skies will remain as mostly to partly cloudy. Temperatures will be in the upper 20’s and winds will shift overnight coming from the south to southeast. Tomorrow the chance of snow or rain builds in central Oklahoma with Oklahoma City having a 20% chance of precipitation. High temperatures will be in the upper 30’s and winds will be strong from the southeast at 15 to 20 miles per hour. The skies will remain cloudy tomorrow night with a 70% chance of snow, rain and freezing rain occurring. Temperatures will drop into the teens, and winds will remain from the north to northeast at light to moderate conditions. In Texas, partly sunny to mostly sunny conditions will occur around the eastern and northern edge and over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be warming into the 50’s in most areas, with the southernmost areas approaching 60. The Dallas/Fort Worth area will remain in the 40’s. Winds will be from the north to northwest to begin the day. Overnight a southerly wind begins to take over with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s in north Texas and into Oklahoma, whereas to the south most areas will register in the lower 30’s for their low temperatures. Tomorrow mostly sunny to partly sunny skies will remain in the northern Texas area as well as in the eastern edge communities around the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself, and off to the west cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will prevail. Temperatures will warm into the 60’s tomorrow ahead of another front moving through the region. Winds will be from the south and will pick up intensity with most areas in the 15 to 25 mile per hour range late in the afternoon, going into the evening hours. Tomorrow night cloudy conditions build as the chance of rain across the entire region rises with the passage of a front through the area. Winds will continue to be strong with most areas to the east experiencing very gust conditions. Winds will begin from the southeast but turn during the nighttime hours to a northerly direction.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move southeast briefly then head northwest on southeasterly winds this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow. There is a building chance of precipitation in central Oklahoma tomorrow morning. This is an indication of things to come tomorrow night as the entire region will have a chance of precipitation. The air remains dense moving along the ground both towards the southeast and as it reverses heading back to the northwest. Light to moderate winds drive the atmosphere today and tonight, but tomorrow wind speeds will increase. Tomorrow night winds will once again come from the north bringing cold air with forecast lows back into the teens overnight. There is no buoyancy whatsoever to the atmosphere region wide, no pollen is expected to be shed today or tomorrow. Temperatures across the region will be cold throughout the forecast period. Warmer conditions are building to the south but there is no indication of their movement northward.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions, partly cloudy skies and the chance of precipitation late tomorrow and into tomorrow evening will remain in the forecast. These conditions are poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shedding pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region and light winds today and tonight. A weather system will move across the beginning tomorrow morning and especially tomorrow night bringing a chance of snow, rain and freezing rain starting in Oklahoma but spreading across Texas tomorrow night. Winds will remain light and variable today and tonight, but will shift direction tomorrow and become much stronger across the region. The cold temperatures will last for at least today and tomorrow, although warming is occurring further south across Texas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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