The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, February 7 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will continue to recover from the recent cold event last week. In Oklahoma partly cloudy conditions will occur today with temperatures in the low 40’s. Winds will be from the northwest at light conditions. Overnight the skies will remain as mostly to partly cloudy. Temperatures will be in the upper 20’s and winds will shift overnight coming from the south to southeast. Tomorrow the chance of snow or rain builds in central Oklahoma with Oklahoma City having a 20% chance of precipitation. High temperatures will be in the upper 30’s and winds will be strong from the southeast at 15 to 20 miles per hour. The skies will remain cloudy tomorrow night with a 70% chance of snow, rain and freezing rain occurring. Temperatures will drop into the teens, and winds will remain from the north to northeast at light to moderate conditions. In Texas, partly sunny to mostly sunny conditions will occur around the eastern and northern edge and over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be warming into the 50’s in most areas, with the southernmost areas approaching 60. The Dallas/Fort Worth area will remain in the 40’s. Winds will be from the north to northwest to begin the day. Overnight a southerly wind begins to take over with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s in north Texas and into Oklahoma, whereas to the south most areas will register in the lower 30’s for their low temperatures. Tomorrow mostly sunny to partly sunny skies will remain in the northern Texas area as well as in the eastern edge communities around the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself, and off to the west cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will prevail. Temperatures will warm into the 60’s tomorrow ahead of another front moving through the region. Winds will be from the south and will pick up intensity with most areas in the 15 to 25 mile per hour range late in the afternoon, going into the evening hours. Tomorrow night cloudy conditions build as the chance of rain across the entire region rises with the passage of a front through the area. Winds will continue to be strong with most areas to the east experiencing very gust conditions. Winds will begin from the southeast but turn during the nighttime hours to a northerly direction.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move towards the south to southeast today on light winds from the north and west. This afternoon and tonight the winds switch coming from the south to southeast but continue at light conditions. Tomorrow the trajectories begin a quick movement northward on moderate to strong winds from the south. Tomorrow night the winds begin to be turned back to a northerly direction as a system moves through the area. Over the forecast period temperatures will remain cold to the north with warming into the 50’s to the south. Along the edge of the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the 60 in the southern communities. Today mostly sunny to sunny conditions will occur over the region. However, the atmosphere at the ground continues to be dense travelling at ground level. Most of the trajectories move southeastward then reverse heading towards the north, travelling across western portions of Texas and western Oklahoma. Tomorrow night warmer nighttime lows are expected, but the chance of precipitation is forecast across the entire region. Winds will become quite gusty as the system moves into the area and the dominant south to southeasterly flow of winds reverses to a northerly flow.

OUTLOOK: *** Low-Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with warming temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Warming conditions will occur today and tomorrow and result in the potential for moderate conditions for pollen cones to open and shed any pollen left within the populations across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Recently the southern stations have reported pollen levels falling off dramatically. This warming will tell if the season is nearing its end. It is unclear at this time if the recent severe weather throughout the area significantly affected cones that have yet to shed pollen. Previously there has been a loss of cones especially during freezing rain and sleet conditions. The storm forecast for tomorrow night is expected to bring more freezing rain conditions to the area. In addition to poor conditions for pollen shedding there is also poor conditions for that pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with dense air across the region. A weather system moves across the northern region beginning tomorrow then the southern extension is expected through tomorrow night. Winds will remain light to moderate today and tonight from the north. This evening winds will begin to shift coming around to a southerly direction. The winds will remain moderate. Tomorrow in the afternoon winds will pick up to much stronger levels with increased gustiness. The warming of nighttime temperatures will last for at least today and tomorrow with most areas in the thirties tonight and close to forty in the eastern areas tomorrow night. Tomorrow night the western areas will remain cold with overnight lows in the 20s.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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