The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 8 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, February 8 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will begin to degrade today from the recent warming as the region gets ready to receive the next system from the north. Temperatures in Oklahoma today will be in the upper 30’s with a chance of rain and snow in the Oklahoma City region. Winds will start from the southeast at moderate to strong conditions. As the front moves through, winds will shift to a northerly flow with much colder air behind them. Tonight the Oklahoma region has a 70% chance of rain, freezing rain, and snow with temperatures in the teens and winds from the north to northeast at strong to moderate levels. Tomorrow cloudy skies and the chance of snow dominate the forecast with high temperatures only getting into the high teens and low twenties. Winds tomorrow will be from the north at moderate to strong levels and gusts in some areas around 30 miles per hour. Tomorrow night snow is once again forecast with temperatures in the single digits and strong northwest winds gusting to 25 miles per hour. In Texas today temperatures will start in the 60’s in most areas with moderate to strong southeasterly breezes. The high temperatures will arrive early with a significant cool down as a front from the north pushes into the region. Skies will have begun mostly sunny to partly sunny in the eastern areas but partly cloudy to cloudy skies to the west are an omen of the system that will arrive tonight. Tonight partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will build as temperatures cool. Overnight lows will be in the 20’s to the west and low 30 over the Plateau. Along the edge communities low temperatures will remain in the upper 30’s to mid 40,s. There is a chance of precipitation across the entire region in the form of rain and light freezing rain, especially to the west where it will be colder. Winds will start from the southeast but turn with the passing of the front to a northerly flow bringing dense cold air with them. Winds overnight will be strong with gusts as high as 45 miles per hour across the Texas region. Tomorrow partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur with temperatures reaching only into the low 40’s to the east and southeast. The west will only reach the mid to low 30s . Tomorrow night mostly to partly cloudy skies will prevail with temperatures in the teens to the west and in the low to mid 20’s over the rest of the forecast area. Winds will remain from the north with moderate conditions to the west and the east retaining strong winds and gusts up to 45 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northwest and then north on winds that then take them north of Oklahoma where they are incorporated into a push of air heading at high elevations towards the east coast. There is a building chance of precipitation in central Oklahoma tomorrow In Texas the same increasing chance of precipitation with cold conditions moving in from the north will begin to be felt tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Along with this weather change will come increasing amounts of moderate to high winds. The flow from the south and southeast will be overtaken by a northerly and northwesterly flow. Winds strengths will become strong with gusts in the 30 to 45 mile per hour range. Temperatures are headed down once again with overnight lows in the upper thirties to low forties in the surrounding edge communities, but to the west lows will be in the twenties. Tomrrow most of the Edwards Plateau has a chance of rain, freezing rain and snow. Highs will rise into the 40’s in the areas that are usually warmer, but stay in the 30’s across the rest of the Plateau. Winds will remain strong and gusty from the north. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the teens and low twenties across the region. The air is relatively dense near the ground and thus there is little lift if any pollen does get entrained. The strong winds and cold temperatures recently should have scoured out any open cones that had residual pollen in them and thus not much pollen should be in the air over the next two days.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions exist for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions, partly cloudy skies and the chance of precipitation tonight and tomorrow will remain in the forecast. These conditions are poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. A weather system will move across the area beginning this afternoon and especially tonight bringing a chance of snow, rain and freezing rain starting in Oklahoma and spreading across Texas. Winds will be strong throughout the forecast with gust ranging from 25 to 45 miles per hour. The cold temperatures will last for at least today and tomorrow. There is some indication that the pollination season is beginning to wrap up. Over the last two or three days of good conditions across Texas little pollen was observed at some of the monitoring stations. However, weather conditions will be poor for any kind of pollination and entrainment over the next couple of days

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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