The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 9 February 2011
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Wednesday, February 9 – TX/OK:
Conditions across the region will degrade today from the recent warming as the region receives the next system
from the north. Temperatures in Oklahoma today will be in the teens to low 20’s with a chance of snow in the Oklahoma
City region. Winds will be from the north at moderate to moderately strong conditions. Gusts up to 30 miles per
hour can be expected in the Oklahoma City area. Tonight temperatures will be in the low single digits with a 20%
chance of snow showers in the area. Winds will maintain a northwestward flow at 10 miles per hour with gusts
up to 25 miles per hour. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will occur throughout the day, with temperatures in the
upper 20’s and approaching 30. Winds will be from the northwest at light to variable conditions. Tomorrow night
similar conditions will exist as the daytime hours except the temperatures will dive into the low teens. In Texas,
rain and sleet along with frozen rain are expected in the Dallas region as well as along the eastern edge and across
the eastern region of the Edwards Plateau as far south as Austin. There is a significant chance of precipitation
throughout the area. Temperatures will be in the 40’s in the warmest areas and well into the 30’s in the remainder
of region. Winds will be from the north across the area at strong to very strong conditions. Most areas also
expect gusty conditions that will reach close to the 45 miles per hour range. Overnight mostly to partly cloudy
conditions will prevail with temperatures in the mid-teens to the west and north while the eastern edge communities
will stay in the twenties. Winds will be strong from the north in all areas except the western communities where
light to moderate conditions will occur. Winds across the region will be from the north. Tomorrow the area becomes
sunny in most areas. Temperatures will rise to the 30’s and 40’s with the warmest areas in the upper 40’s to near
50. Winds will calm dramatically with light to moderate flow from the north. Tomorrow night temperatures will
return to the teens in most areas with the eastern edge communities in the twenties. Very light wind conditions
will be prevalent throughout the area.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south on the northerly winds
that are building over the region. There is a significant chance of precipitation in central Oklahoma today and
tonight. Temperatures are headed down once again with overnight lows in the single digits tonight and low teens
tomorrow. The air remains dense moving along the ground during the entire forecast period. The strong winds from
the north will take the trajectory across the entire state and over the Gulf of Mexico in the next two days. Tomorrow
winds will continue from the north but wind strength will decrease. Tomorrow, temperatures will be in the 20’s
and 30’s. Tomorrow night those temperatures will drop into the low teens overnight. Winds will return to light
and variable conditions.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for
pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel
today and tomorrow. Cold conditions, partly cloudy skies and the chance of precipitation today and tonight, will
remain in the forecast. Cold temperatures will remain below the mid thirties for high temperatures over the forecast
period. These conditions are poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions
will occur for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. A weather
system will move across the area beginning today and tonight bringing a chance of snow, rain and freezing rain
starting in Oklahoma and spreading across Texas. Winds will be strong today and tonight with gust ranging from
25 to 45 miles per hour. The cold temperatures will last for at least today and tomorrow. There is some indication
that the pollination season is beginning to wrap up. Over the last two or three days of good conditions across
Texas little pollen was observed at some of the monitoring stations.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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