The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 9 February 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wednesday, February 9 Ė TX/OK: Conditions across the region will degrade today from the recent warming as the region receives the next system from the north. Temperatures in Oklahoma today will be in the teens to low 20ís with a chance of snow in the Oklahoma City region. Winds will be from the north at moderate to moderately strong conditions. Gusts up to 30 miles per hour can be expected in the Oklahoma City area. Tonight temperatures will be in the low single digits with a 20% chance of snow showers in the area. Winds will maintain a northwestward flow at 10 miles per hour with gusts up to 25 miles per hour. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will occur throughout the day, with temperatures in the upper 20ís and approaching 30. Winds will be from the northwest at light to variable conditions. Tomorrow night similar conditions will exist as the daytime hours except the temperatures will dive into the low teens. In Texas, rain and sleet along with frozen rain are expected in the Dallas region as well as along the eastern edge and across the eastern region of the Edwards Plateau as far south as Austin. There is a significant chance of precipitation throughout the area. Temperatures will be in the 40ís in the warmest areas and well into the 30ís in the remainder of region. Winds will be from the north across the area at strong to very strong conditions. Most areas also expect gusty conditions that will reach close to the 45 miles per hour range. Overnight mostly to partly cloudy conditions will prevail with temperatures in the mid-teens to the west and north while the eastern edge communities will stay in the twenties. Winds will be strong from the north in all areas except the western communities where light to moderate conditions will occur. Winds across the region will be from the north. Tomorrow the area becomes sunny in most areas. Temperatures will rise to the 30ís and 40ís with the warmest areas in the upper 40ís to near 50. Winds will calm dramatically with light to moderate flow from the north. Tomorrow night temperatures will return to the teens in most areas with the eastern edge communities in the twenties. Very light wind conditions will be prevalent throughout the area.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move south on the northerly winds that are building over the region. There is a significant chance of precipitation in central Oklahoma today and tonight. Temperatures are headed down once again with todayís readings in the low 40ís to 30ís in most areas. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid-twenties and teens tonight with similar readings tomorrow night. Tomorrow temperatures during the day remain in the 40ís for the highs, even the southernmost areas will strive to get into the 50ís. The air remains dense moving along the ground during the entire forecast period. The strong winds from the north will take the trajectories across the entire state and into Mexico or over the Gulf of Mexico in the next two days. Tomorrow winds will continue from the north but wind strength will decrease. Tomorrow night those temperatures will drop into the low teens overnight. Winds will return to light and variable conditions.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions, partly cloudy skies and the chance of precipitation today and tonight, will remain in the forecast. Cold temperatures will remain below the mid-forties for high temperatures over the forecast period. These conditions are poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. A weather system will move across the area beginning today and tonight bringing a chance of snow, rain and freezing rain starting in Oklahoma and spreading across most of Texas. Winds will be strong today and tonight with gust ranging from 25 to 45 miles per hour. The cold temperatures will last for at least today and tomorrow. There is some indication that the pollination season is beginning to wrap up. Over the last two or three days of good conditions across Texas little pollen was observed at some of the monitoring stations.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page