The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 10 February 2011
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Thursday, February 10 – TX/OK:
Conditions across the region will begin to pull out of the most recent shot of cold weather that pushed into the
area yesterday. In Oklahoma, partly cloudy skies and cold conditions will be the hallmark for today with sunny
skies expected tomorrow. Today the high temperatures are expected to only be in the upper 20’s to just approaching
30 with light and variable winds in some areas and winds from the northwest, up to 10 miles per hour, in other
areas. The calm winds will be a happy relief from yesterday’s gusty conditions. Tonight some clearing will occur
with partly cloudy skies to the north and clear skies to the south. Temperatures will be in the low teens across
the region and winds will vary being up to 10 miles per hour or less. Tomorrow temperatures will start to warm
with high temperatures increasing but not expected to get out of the 40’s. Winds will be light to moderate from
the southwest. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the 20’s with light and variable conditions. In Texas today,
Sunny skies will prevail across the region. Temperatures will climb out of yesterday’s cold conditions with most
areas in the mid to upper 40’s for high temperatures. Areas to the north and west will remain in the 30’s. Winds
will be light to moderate from the north in most areas. Tonight clear skies will predominate with low temperatures
dropping into the upper teens to low twenties. Winds will be light from the north and from a more southerly direction
in southern Texas. Tomorrow sunny skies will return with temperatures in most areas in the 50’s. Winds will remain
light from the south, a southwesterly breeze will occur to the west whereas a southeasterly breeze will blow along
the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night clear conditions will prevail with temperatures in the
20’s in all regions except to the far west where teens will predominate. Winds will remain light with the wind
direction switching to a more southerly source.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northeast on light southwestern
winds that are over the Oklahoma region, then carry over Arkansas at the upper elevation but stay within the Oklahoma
border for the surface winds. Temperatures will be in the 20’s in most areas today with a slight rise into the
lower 40’s tomorrow under sunny skies. Overnight lows will be in the lower teens tonight with a warming of about
ten degrees tomorrow night. The air remains dense today and tonight until tomorrow’s heating begins to make the
air more bouyant. Light and variable winds will move any entrained pollen over short distances keeping most of
the atmosphere relatively close to where it originated from. Tomorrow winds will continue to be light to moderate,
skies will be sunny and high temperatures slightly warmer. Tomorrow night slightly warmer low temperatures and
light winds will remain.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for
pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions will occur for entrainment
and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions, but sunny skies and light winds today and tomorrow. Today lows
will be in the mid to upper 20’s across the region. These temperatures are seen as being not conducive to pollen
release. However the sunny skies, especially tomorrow may result in the air feeling warmer than it actually is.
These conditions are poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur
for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. Tomorrow, calm
conditions will continue, but with a five to ten degree warming. Conditions will still remain poor for pollen
release and entrainment will remain problematic with only light winds tol move the pollen regionally and not outside
of the state. There is some indication that the pollination season is beginning to wrap up. Some of the stations
that report very heavy pollen levels are showing a significant reduction in pollen in the atmosphere. During the
last string of days with good conditions across Texas little pollen was observed at some of these monitoring stations.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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