The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 10 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, February 10 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will begin to pull out of the most recent shot of cold weather that pushed into the area yesterday. In Oklahoma, partly cloudy skies and cold conditions will be the hallmark for today with sunny skies expected tomorrow. Today the high temperatures are expected to only be in the upper 20’s to just approaching 30 with light and variable winds in some areas and winds from the northwest, up to 10 miles per hour, in other areas. The calm winds will be a happy relief from yesterday’s gusty conditions. Tonight some clearing will occur with partly cloudy skies to the north and clear skies to the south. Temperatures will be in the low teens across the region and winds will vary being up to 10 miles per hour or less. Tomorrow temperatures will start to warm with high temperatures increasing but not expected to get out of the 40’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the 20’s with light and variable conditions. In Texas today, Sunny skies will prevail across the region. Temperatures will climb out of yesterday’s cold conditions with most areas in the mid to upper 40’s for high temperatures. Areas to the north and west will remain in the 30’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the north in most areas. Tonight clear skies will predominate with low temperatures dropping into the upper teens to low twenties. Winds will be light from the north and from a more southerly direction in southern Texas. Tomorrow sunny skies will return with temperatures in most areas in the 50’s. Winds will remain light from the south, a southwesterly breeze will occur to the west whereas a southeasterly breeze will blow along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night clear conditions will prevail with temperatures in the 20’s in all regions except to the far west where teens will predominate. Winds will remain light with the wind direction switching to a more southerly source.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northeast on light southwestern winds that are over the Oklahoma region, then carry over Arkansas at the upper elevation but stay within the Oklahoma border for the surface winds. Temperatures will be in the 20’s in most areas today with a slight rise into the lower 40’s tomorrow under sunny skies. Overnight lows will be in the lower teens tonight with a warming of about ten degrees tomorrow night. The air remains dense today and tonight until tomorrow’s heating begins to make the air more bouyant. Light and variable winds will move any entrained pollen over short distances keeping most of the atmosphere relatively close to where it originated from. Tomorrow winds will continue to be light to moderate, skies will be sunny and high temperatures slightly warmer. Tomorrow night slightly warmer low temperatures and light winds will remain.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions will occur for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions, but sunny skies and light winds today and tomorrow. Today lows will be in the mid to upper 20’s across the region. These temperatures are seen as being not conducive to pollen release. However the sunny skies, especially tomorrow may result in the air feeling warmer than it actually is. These conditions are poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. Tomorrow, calm conditions will continue, but with a five to ten degree warming. Conditions will still remain poor for pollen release and entrainment will remain problematic with only light winds tol move the pollen regionally and not outside of the state. There is some indication that the pollination season is beginning to wrap up. Some of the stations that report very heavy pollen levels are showing a significant reduction in pollen in the atmosphere. During the last string of days with good conditions across Texas little pollen was observed at some of these monitoring stations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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