The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, February 10 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will begin to pull out of the most recent shot of cold weather that pushed into the area yesterday. In Oklahoma, partly cloudy skies and cold conditions will be the hallmark for today with sunny skies expected tomorrow. Today the high temperatures are expected to only be in the upper 20’s to just approaching 30 with light and variable winds in some areas and winds from the northwest, up to 10 miles per hour, in other areas. The calm winds will be a happy relief from yesterday’s gusty conditions. Tonight some clearing will occur with partly cloudy skies to the north and clear skies to the south. Temperatures will be in the low teens across the region and winds will vary being up to 10 miles per hour or less. Tomorrow temperatures will start to warm with high temperatures increasing but not expected to get out of the 40’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the 20’s with light and variable conditions. In Texas today, Sunny skies will prevail across the region. Temperatures will climb out of yesterday’s cold conditions with most areas in the mid to upper 40’s for high temperatures. Areas to the north and west will remain in the 30’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the north in most areas. Tonight clear skies will predominate with low temperatures dropping into the upper teens to low twenties. Winds will be light from the north and from a more southerly direction in southern Texas. Tomorrow sunny skies will return with temperatures in most areas in the 50’s. Winds will remain light from the south, a southwesterly breeze will occur to the west whereas a southeasterly breeze will blow along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night clear conditions will prevail with temperatures in the 20’s in all regions except to the far west where teens will predominate. Winds will remain light with the wind direction switching to a more southerly source.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move south on the remnant northerly winds that are over the region, then swing towards the west and loop back up over northern Texas. In the next 24 to 48 hour very light winds will keep most of the air mass within the Texas region. Temperatures will be in the 40’s in most areas with only the furthers south communities toying with crossing the 50 degree mark. Overnight lows will be in the upper teens to low twenties tonight with a warming of about five degrees. Tomorrow temperatures during the day will climb into the 50’s for the highs under very sunny conditions. The air remains dense today and tonight until tomorrow’s heating begins to make the air less dense. Light and variable winds will move any entrained pollen over short distances keeping most of the atmosphere relatively close to where it originated from. Tomorrow winds will continue to be light to moderate, skies will be sunny and high temperatures slightly warmer. Tomorrow night slightly warmer low temperatures and light winds will remain.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today, slightly improving tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions, partly but sunny skies and light winds today and tomorrow. Today lows will be in the mid 40’s across the region. These temperatures are seen as being marginal for pollen release. However the sunny skies, especially tomorrow may result in pollen being shed. Today, cold temperatures will remain below the mid-forties for high temperatures. These conditions are poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. Tomorrow, calm conditions will continue, but with a five to ten degree warming. Conditions will be much better for pollen release, but entrainment will remain problematic and light winds will move the pollen regionally and not outside of the state. There is some indication that the pollination season is beginning to wrap up. Some of the stations that report very heavy pollen levels are showing a significant reduction in pollen in the atmosphere. During the last string of days with good conditions across Texas little pollen was observed at some of these monitoring stations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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