The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 11 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, February 11 TX/OK: Conditions across the region are beginning to warm today under sunny skies. In Oklahoma sunny skies will start to pull the region out of the very cold conditions of the last couple of days. High temperatures will be in the 40s with low 40s to the north and upper 40s to the south around the juniper population. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour to the north decreasing southward. Tonight clear skies will bring temperatures down to the low to mid 20s with light and variable winds. Tomorrow, skies will remain clear and sunny with temperatures getting into the 50s topping out near the 60s. Winds will remain light and variable across the tree population. Tonight partly cloudy to clear conditions occur with temperatures warming into the upper 20s to low 30s. Tomorrow night winds will build a bit coming out of the south at 10 miles per hour. In Texas, sunny skies across the region will occur with temperatures across the Edwards Plateau warming into the 50s. Winds will be light and variable to the north and light to moderate on the western side of the Edwards Plateau. Tonight skies will remain clear with low temperatures in the 20s across the region. Winds tonight will remain light coming mostly from the south but to the west a more southwesterly breeze will occur. Tomorrow sunny skies continue with temperatures climbing into the 60s. Winds will pick-up to more light to moderate conditions from the southwest over most of the area. Tomorrow night clear skies with lows mostly staying in the 30s will occur. Winds will continue to be from the southwest at light to moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move east- northeast on light southwestern winds moving over southeast Oklahoma, then carry over Arkansas. Temperatures will be in the lower 40s in most areas today with a slight rise into the upper 50s tomorrow. Clear and sunny skies will occur both days over the entire region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid- twenties with a warming of up to ten degrees tomorrow night. The air remains dense today and tonight until tomorrows heating begins to result in the air more buoyant. Light and variable winds will move any entrained pollen over short distances keeping most of the atmosphere relatively close to where it originated from. Tomorrow winds will continue to be light to moderate, skies will be sunny and high temperatures warming by more than 10 degrees. Tomorrow night slightly warmer low temperatures and light winds will remain.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** marginal conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions will occur for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cool conditions, but with sunny skies and light winds today and tomorrow. Today high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s across the region. These temperatures are seen as being not particularly conducive for pollen release. However the sunny skies, may result in the surface warming on some of the trees leading to potential pollen release. Yet temperatures in the 40s are usually poor conditions for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. Tomorrow, calm conditions will continue with warming into the upper 50s. Conditions will be much better for pollen release, but entrainment will remain problematic with only light winds to move the pollen. In addition, there is building evidence that the pollination season is beginning to wrap up. Some of the stations in the area report a significant reduction in pollen in the atmosphere. During the last string of days with good conditions across Texas little pollen was observed at some of these monitoring stations. This weekend with the warm temperatures across the region will be telling in terms of the overall contribution of Ashe juniper pollen to the atmosphere. However, winds from the south could potentially bring pollen from Texas over eastern Oklahoma. See the Texas forecast for details.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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