The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, February 11 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region are beginning to warm today under sunny skies. In Oklahoma sunny skies will start to pull the region out of the very cold conditions of the last couple of days. High temperatures will be in the 40’s with low 40’s to the north and upper 40’s to the south around the juniper population. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour to the north decreasing southward. Tonight clear skies will bring temperatures down to the low to mid 20’s with light and variable winds. Tomorrow, skies will remain clear and sunny with temperatures getting into the 50’s topping out near the 60’s. Winds will remain light and variable across the tree population. Tonight partly cloudy to clear conditions occur with temperatures warming into the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Tomorrow night winds will build a bit coming out of the south at 10 miles per hour. In Texas, sunny skies across the region will occur with temperatures across the Edwards Plateau warming into the 50’s. Winds will be light and variable to the north and light to moderate on the western side of the Edwards Plateau. Tonight skies will remain clear with low temperatures in the 20’s across the region. Winds tonight will remain light coming mostly from the south but to the west a more southwesterly breeze will occur. Tomorrow sunny skies continue with temperatures climbing into the 60’s. Winds will pick-up to more light to moderate conditions from the southwest over most of the area. Tomorrow night clear skies with lows mostly staying in the 30’s will occur. Winds will continue to be from the southwest at light to moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move northeast on the light to moderate southwesterly winds that are over the region, taking the trajectories over north Texas and Oklahoma, then over Arkansas. In the next 24 to 48 hour very light to moderate winds will result in the potential of entrained pollen moving over this area. Buoyant conditions in the air today will also result in conditions that are good for entrainment as well as travel. Temperatures will be in the 50’s in most areas today. Overnight lows will be in the mid- to upper 20’s with a warming of about five to ten degrees tomorrow night. Tomorrow temperatures during the day will climb into the upper 50’s and low 60’s under very sunny conditions. The air will remain buoyant with moderate winds. Light and variable winds will move entrained pollen long distances, however there is some question as to the amount of pollen left to be released. Tomorrow winds will continue to be light to moderate, skies will be sunny and high temperatures warm. Tomorrow night warmer low temperatures hover around the freezing level and moderate winds will remain in the area.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today, improving tomorrow with warming temperatures throughout the area. Good conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Warm conditions, with sunny skies and light to moderate winds will occur today and tomorrow. These conditions are seen as being good to very good for pollen release. However, the trees have been shedding pollen for some time and traditionally the end of the pollen season occurs in early February. Regional pollen collectors appear to be tapering off, but poor conditions for pollen release have occurred across the area for some time. The next couple of days with really nice conditions for release, entrainment and travel will signal an extension of the pollination season or a winding down of the release period. The moderate to light winds and a buoyant atmosphere will take pollen from central Texas and move it northeastward. If pollen is entrained within the air mass the eastern portion of Oklahoma and Arkansas will be affected, thus those areas will have a high threat level today

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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