The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 12 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, February 12 TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be warming today under sunny skies. In Oklahoma sunny skies will bring the region into the 50s and 60s today. Winds will be from the southwest over the region at moderate to light conditions. Tonight clear skies in southern Oklahoma and partly cloudy further north will occur with low temperatures at or just below the freezing levels. Winds will be from the south at 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow the 60s will return to the region as high temperatures continue to occur. Winds will be from the south once again at moderate to light conditions. Tomorrow night will have clear skies with low temperatures in the mid to low 30s. In Texas, sunny skies will occur with most areas in the 60s. Winds will be moderate to light from the southwest during the day. Tonight clear to mostly clear skies will occur across the area with low temperatures hovering in and around the freezing mark. Areas to the west will tend to be in the upper 20s whereas the edge communities to the east will be just above freezing. Tomorrow sunny skies will prevail region wide. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 60s with the eastern areas along the edge of the Edwards Plateau will flirt with the low 70s. Winds will be from the south at moderate to light levels. Tonight mostly clear skies will occur with low temperatures in the edge communities only dropping into the 40s. To the west colder conditions will occur with lows expected to be in the upper 20s and 30s.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move east- northeast on light southwestern winds over northeast Oklahoma, and across Missouri. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s in most areas today with a slight rise into the upper 60s tomorrow. Clear and sunny skies will occur both days over the entire region. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s tonight warming above freezing tomorrow night. The air remains dense today and tonight. Light to moderate conditions will move any entrained pollen over the ground surface removing entrained particles through the process of impaction. Tomorrow winds will continue to be light to moderate, skies will be sunny and high temperatures warming by about 5 degrees. Tomorrow night slightly warmer low temperatures and light winds will remain.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with warm temperatures throughout the area. moderate conditions will occur for entrainment, but poor travel conditions exist today and tomorrow. Warm conditions with sunny skies and light to moderate winds will occur today and tomorrow. Today high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the region. These temperatures are conducive for pollen release, however the number of cones left to release pollen from is diminishing as the end of the season nears. Where pollen is available, light winds will entrain pollen into the atmosphere but dense air flowing at ground level should remove a significant portion of it through impaction as it moves at ground level. Tomorrow, good conditions will continue with warming into the 60s. Conditions will be much better for pollen release, but entrainment will remain problematic with light to moderate winds to move the pollen and for downwind travel. There is building evidence that the pollination season is beginning to wrap up. Some of the stations in the area report a significant reduction in pollen in the atmosphere. During the last string of days with good conditions across Texas little pollen was observed at some of these monitoring stations. This weekend with the warm temperatures across the region will be telling in terms of the overall contribution of Ashe juniper pollen to the atmosphere. Winds from the south could potentially bring pollen from Texas over eastern Oklahoma. See the Texas forecast for details.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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