The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, February 12 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be warming today under sunny skies. In Oklahoma sunny skies will bring the region into the 50’s and 60’s today. Winds will be from the southwest over the region at moderate to light conditions. Tonight clear skies in southern Oklahoma and partly cloudy further north will occur with low temperatures at or just below the freezing levels. Winds will be from the south at 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow the 60’s will return to the region as high temperatures continue to occur. Winds will be from the south once again at moderate to light conditions. Tomorrow night will have clear skies with low temperatures in the mid to low 30’s. In Texas, sunny skies will occur with most areas in the 60’s. Winds will be moderate to light from the southwest during the day. Tonight clear to mostly clear skies will occur across the area with low temperatures hovering in and around the freezing mark. Areas to the west will tend to be in the upper 20’s whereas the edge communities to the east will be just above freezing. Tomorrow sunny skies will prevail region wide. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 60’s with the eastern areas along the edge of the Edwards Plateau will flirt with the low 70’s. Winds will be from the south at moderate to light levels. Tonight mostly clear skies will occur with low temperatures in the edge communities only dropping into the 40’s. To the west colder conditions will occur with low’s expected to be in the upper 20’s and 30’s.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move northeast on light southwestern winds over northeast Texas and into Oklahoma. Winds from the northeastern areas are caught in stronger conditions and will continue over parts of Arkansas and into Missouri. Temperatures will be in the 60’s in most areas today with a slight rise into the upper 60’s tomorrow. Clear and sunny skies will occur both days over the entire region. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s tonight warming above the freezing level tomorrow night. The air remains stable today and tonight moving at the same level downwind. Light to moderate conditions will move any entrained pollen near the ground surface removing entrained particles through the process of impaction. Tomorrow winds will continue to be light to moderate, skies will be sunny and high temperatures warming by about 5 degrees. Tomorrow night slightly warmer low temperatures and light winds will remain in the area. Conditions to the west will be cooler, at or below freezing, versus the eastern areas where lows will be in the low 40’s.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today, improving tomorrow with warming temperatures throughout the area. Good conditions for entrainment and moderate travel conditions today and tomorrow. Warm conditions, with sunny skies and light to moderate winds will occur today and tomorrow. These conditions are seen as being good to very good for pollen release. However, the trees have been shedding pollen for some time and traditionally the end of the pollen season occurs in early February. Regional pollen collectors appear to be tapering off, but poor conditions for pollen release have occurred across the region for some time. The next couple of days with really nice conditions for release, entrainment and travel will signal an extension of the pollination season or a winding down of the release period. The moderate to light winds but stable atmosphere will take pollen from central Texas and move it northeastward. The winds will carry any entrained pollen at or near the elevation at which it is released thus the chance of impaction and overall cleansing of the pollen out of the atmosphere will be greater than with a more buoyant conditions. If pollen is entrained within the air mass the eastern portion of Oklahoma and Arkansas will be affected, thus those areas will have a high threat level today

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page