The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, February 13 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be warm again today under sunny skies. In Oklahoma sunny skies will bring the region into the 60’s today. Winds will be from the south over the region at light and variable speeds up to 10 miles per hour this afternoon. Tonight clear skies in southern Oklahoma and partly cloudy further north will occur with low temperatures at or just below the freezing levels. Winds will remain from the south at 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow the 60’s will return to the region. However, winds will switch and be coming from the northeast at light to moderate strengths. Tomorrow night will have partly cloudy skies with a building chance of rain (20%) in the southern Oklahoma area. Lows will be in and around 40 degrees with light winds from the southeast. In Texas, sunny skies will occur with most areas in the 60’s and low 70’s today. Winds will be moderate to light across most of the Plateau from the southwest during the day. In the edge communities moderate winds will pick up during the afternoon from the south to southwest. Tonight clear to mostly clear skies will occur across the area with low temperatures hovering in and around the freezing mark. Areas to the west will tend to be a little cooler whereas the edge communities to the east will be just above freezing. Winds will remain at light to moderate conditions from the south to southwest. Tomorrow sunny and mostly sunny skies will occur region wide. The edge communities can expect some morning fog. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 60’s with areas along the edge of the Edwards Plateau and on the Plateau in the low 70’s. Winds will be from the south at light to moderate levels. In the most western communities winds will shift, coming from the northeast. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies will occur with low temperatures relatively warm. The edge communities will only drop into the low 50’s. To the west colder conditions will occur with low’s expected to be in the upper 30’s and low 40’s.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories at the ground from the Arbuckle Mountains move north to northeast on light southwestern winds over central Oklahoma, then reverse their course overnight as light northeasterly winds take over. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s in most areas today with a slight cooling into the mid to lower 60’s tomorrow. Clear and sunny skies will occur both days over the entire region. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s tonight warming above freezing tomorrow night and staying in the mid 40’s.. The air remains dense today and tonight. Light to moderate conditions will move any entrained pollen over the ground surface removing entrained particles through the process of impaction. Tomorrow winds will continue to be light to moderate, skies will be sunny and high temperatures cooling slightly.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with warm temperatures throughout the area. Moderate to poor conditions will occur for entrainment, and poor travel conditions exist today and tomorrow. Warm conditions with sunny skies and light to moderate winds will occur today and tomorrow. Today high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60’s across the region. These temperatures are conducive for pollen release, however the number of cones left to release pollen from is diminishing as the end of the season nears. Where pollen is available, light winds will entrain pollen into the atmosphere but dense air flowing at ground level should remove a significant portion of it through impaction as it moves at ground level. The wind trajectories show the ground level atmosphere moving into central Oklahoma but reversing overnight and retracing todays travel back towards juniper population. Tomorrow, good conditions will continue with warming into the 60’s. Conditions will be similar for pollen release, but entrainment will remain problematic with light to moderate winds to entrain and move the pollen downwind . There is building evidence that the pollination season is beginning to wrap up. Some of the stations in the area report a significant reduction in pollen in the atmosphere. During the last string of days with good conditions across Texas little pollen was observed at some of these monitoring stations. This weekend with the warm temperatures across the region will be telling in terms of the overall contribution of Ashe juniper pollen to the atmosphere. Winds from the south could potentially bring pollen from Texas over eastern-most Oklahoma. See the Texas forecast for details.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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