The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, February 14 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be warm again today under sunny skies. In Oklahoma sunny skies will bring the region into the 60’s today. Winds will be from the northeast over the region at speeds up to 10 miles per hour this afternoon. Tonight clear and partly cloudy skies will occur with temperatures in the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Winds will be from the southeast at 10 miles per hour and less. There is a 20% chance of rain showers in the southernmost Oklahoma region. Today in Texas, Skies will begin the day as mostly sunny in most areas. Around the eastern edge of the plateau this morning there will be a chance of fog. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s and mid- to low 70’s Winds will be from the south on the Plateau and to the east. Winds will be from 5 to 10 miles per hour. To the west a northwest wind begins to invade as the beginning of a system moving over the region. Tonight, Partly cloudy skies will give way to mostly cloudy conditions as a new front moves into the region. Temperatures will remain warm overnight as the system moves into the region. In most places along the eastern side of the plateau temperatures will be in lower 50’s whereas to the west temperatures will be in the lower 40’s and upper 30’s. To the east, winds will remain from the south at light to moderate levels, while in the west winds area light and variable from region to region.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** conditions have been judged to be low for pollen release, entrainment and travel because we are at the end of the pollination season for Juniperus asheii. Pollen counts from areas across the Edwards Plateau indicate that the trees have expended most of their pollen and thus there will not be much in the atmosphere no matter what the conditions are. The highest pollen levels appear to have been just before the end of January. The recent series of really cold weather fronts may have caused un-ripened cones to be lost from the trees. Either way the amount of pollen in the atmosphere has declined rapidly over the last week to 10 days. We appreciate all of feedback that we get while doing these forecasts and hope that they, in some way, help you to manage your allergies. We will begin our forecasting again next fall between Thanksgiving and early December.


Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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