Pollen Transport Forecast, 9 January 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Sunday, January 9 - TX/OK: Cold front moving through southern and eastern sections today but no rain expected. Main brunt of moisture that brought all the rain earlier this weekend has pushed off to the east, leaving only some fog and lingering humidity around. Other than some clouds along the TX coast and north-central OK, clear to partly cloudy skies for today and Monday. Breezy to windy conditions today associated with the front. Highs in the 50's to 70's today and Monday. Lows tonight ranging from the 20's to 40's.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny and breezy this afternoon, high near 70. Fair tonight, low in the low 40's. Sunny on Monday, high in the mid-60's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat East, Moderate Threat West *** Unfavorable conditions east, mostly favorable west. Conditions vary substantially across the Plateau. Eastern sections that received the recent rain are reporting elevated humidities that are coming down slowly towards midday. Western sections have very dry air with plummeting humidities during the mid-to-late morning hours. Temperatures have warmed into the favorable range across the Plateau by mid-morning. Stronger winds are found in the west as well, compared to the east. Little release expected eastern sections.... increasing (from east to west) to Moderate expected release in the western sections of the Plateau. Persons living in central and eastern TX may feel some discomfort today or tonight, with those living in northern LA perhaps feeling some ill effects on Monday. *** Recent reports from the Edward's Plateau are mixed with regard to pollen availability. According to Dr. Jack Kent in Austin, there is little to no pollen on the trees in the area. Yet, he reports allergic symptoms, indicating some pollen is in the air. Information from Bill Durbon in Junction describes relatively low pollen levels at this time, with no profuse pollination to report. Trees have appeared ready to pop for several weeks but have yet to do so. *** Given the past and continuing dry weather, it appears that pollen production is, in general, comparatively less this year and likely spotty in nature. We will continue to update you on the situation as we receive more information. *** TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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