Date Issued: 12 January 2000
Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional weather: Wednesday, January 12 - TX/OK: Low pressure area to the north will move out of the central Rockies and eastward across the central Plains. Low-pressure trough extending to the south of the Low will drag through this region. Very warm ahead of the trough with near-record highs in many locations, highs ranging from the 60's to 80's today. Cooler behind the trough. Wide range of lows tonight, 20's Panhandle to 60's southern TX. Highs Thursday from the 50's north to 70's south. Dry through the period.
Trajectory weather: Sunny to partly cloudy through the forecast. Low clouds and/or fog developing late night through mid-morning each day for southern and eastern edges of the Plateau. High in the upper 70's today, low tonight around 50, high Thursday in the 70's.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat *** Disease Update 10 Jan: Bill Durbon and his observers in Junction report that "pollen is starting to pop all over the place". 12 Jan: Additional reports from other areas of Texas indicate increased pollen release for many areas *** Conditions vary across the Plateau..... mixed but mostly favorable in the east and south, very favorable in the north and west. Temperatures very favorable for release and winds are moderate to strong. Humidities vary considerably.... quite high and dropping slowly in the eastern and southern sections.... high but falling sharply at midday for the central Plateau.... consistently low in the west. Strong Release Expected. Release will begin early in the day on the western Plateau and spread eastward. Significant release is also anticipated for the southern and eastern areas of the Plateau despite the morning fog/clouds/humidity. Moisture conditions will become favorable during the afternoon. Airborne pollen will be moving over the majority of the Lone Star State during the next 24-36 hours. Residents of the Panhandle region and far west Texas may be the only ones to remain unaffected by today's release. TK
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX
Austin, TX
Junction, TX
San Angelo, TX
Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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