Pollen Transport Forecast, 2 February 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 February 2000

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, February 2 - TX/OK: High pressure to over the northern sections..... leftover low/cold front across southern TX..... upper-atmosphere Low to the west. Combination of these factors is bringing clouds and rain to southern TX and some low clouds and/or morning fog to other parts of northern TX and OK. The clouds and rain in southern TX will move southward today and tonight. Clearing skies for the other cloudy/foggy areas this afternoon. By Thursday.... the next cold front will move into the region from the north, but at this time it appears no rain will come with it. Warming temperatures and sunnier skies for many areas on Thursday. Highs today from the 40's to 60's, mostly 50's and 60's on Thursday. Lows tonight ranging from the 20's to 40's.

Trajectory weather: Austin/Junction: Cloudy with a good chance of rain or showers, high near 50. Good chance of rain this evening both trajectories...... with decreasing cloudiness in south-central TX late and a continued good chance of rain towards the TX Coastal Bend region. Low in the 40's. Cloudy with scattered showers for deep South TX on Thursday, high in the 50's. Partly cloudy for south-central TX, high in the 60's. San Angelo: Decreasing clouds, high in the upper 50's today. Partly cloudy tonight and Thursday, low in the 30's, high in the 60's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Light to moderate rain yesterday over much of the Plateau, plus some more rain this morning over the southern sections. Moisture levels remain high and are falling slowly. Temperatures will be in the favorable range this afternoon. Conditions vary across the Plateau, with the most unfavorable weather in the south and east. Some western sections received only a little rain yesterday, a trace this morning, have lower humidities than other sections (but still outside the tolerance zone), and will be warmer today..... yet overall... . Very little to no release expected, with any release coming from the western sections this afternoon. Ill effects on the populace should be quite limited. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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