University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 3 - TX/OK/AR: High pressure area over the region today and Thursday. Variably to mostly cloudy southern TX with decreasing clouds this afternoon; clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Winds are light to moderate. Highs today from the 30's northeast to low 50's southwest; lows tonight mostly in the 20's and 30's. No precipitation expected. Warmer on Thursday for nearly all areas.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny with a high near 50 today. Fair tonight, low in the upper 20's. Mostly sunny on Thursday, high in the 50's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** Mixed conditions across the Plateau today. Temperatures are warming more in the west than the east. They will move into the favorable range (though not far) for most of the afternoon in the west. Temperatures are rising slower in the eastern sections and may be favorable for only an hour or two. Humidities vary as well. Values dropped quickly in some sections during the late morning (central and west), much slower in the south and east. Most humidity readings remain above the tolerance range at midday. Humidities will probably be favorable for release during the afternoon in central and western sections, but much less so, if at all, in the eastern areas. Winds are light in the east, light to moderate towards the west. Overall.... though conditions are not greatly favorable anywhere, some pollen release is likely from the western sections of the Plateau, with little release expected from the eastern areas. With winds from the northwest and west... Moderate Risk of exposure for residents of the Hill Country and south-central TX.... including the metropolitan areas of San Antonio and Austin. Low Risk of exposure elsewhere. Some airborne pollen will reach southeast TX on Thursday, but amounts are not expected to be significant, and your exposure risk should be Low. It is likely that conditions across the plateau will improve tomorrow and greater pollen release is anticipated. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.