University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Date Issued: 9 January 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 9 - TX/OK/AR: High pressure governs the region again today. The center of the High will move from the central Plains to the south and east during the course of the day.... and will be positioned over the mid/lower Mississippi River valley by evening. As the High shifts, winds which are initially light and variable will turn to the southeast. Winds in the western sections of the region will be from the southeast all day and blow stronger than for other areas. Highs in the 50's and 60's, lows in the 30's and 40's with some 50's south. Increasing cloudiness in the west and south as the next system approaches. This system will bring wet weather to much of the region on Wednesday.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny, high in the upper 50's today. Becoming cloudy tonight with a chance of rain or snow, low in the low 30's. Cloudy on Wednesday with a chance of rain, high in the low 50's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat *** We are in the peak of the pollen release season. Conditions are mixed and mostly favorable for pollen release. Temperatures are moving into the favorable range during the late morning at most locations. Winds are light but are expected to increase during the afternoon. Humidities are dropping and are already in the favorable range in some areas. HIGH RISK of exposure for a broad area of central and western TX today and tonight... from the hill country and the Edwards Plateau northward through the Panhandles. Moderate Risk of exposure for sections of western KS on Wednesday. Precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday will serve to lessen the potential impact to the TX/OK Panhandles and western KS, should any occur. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.