University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Thursday, January 18 - TX/OK/AR: Unsettled winter weather will continue today and tonight. Stationary cold front snakes along the entire Gulf Coast then turns northwest across northern Mexico. Waves of low pressure along the front.... combined with upper-level energy have been driving this extended event. Rain or snow most areas today; some northern and western sections will be dry, though still cloudy. Tonight into Friday, the main area of upper-atmospheric energy will finally begin moving east. Surface low pressure will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico. As the whole mess moves east.... precipitation will end and skies will clear on Friday in most areas. Eastern sections will still have some precipitation on Friday, however, before the system leaves. Cold with today's highs in the 30's and 40's. Lows tonight 10's and 20's northwest sections, 30's otherwise. Highs Friday from the 30's north to 50's south.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy with rain likely (perhaps snow western trajectories), high from the mid-30's Plateau to mid-40's east-central / southeast TX. Rain tonight, low in the 30's. Morning rain deep south TX on Friday, otherwise cloudy and cool, high in the 40's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Very unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Temperatures are too cold to support release. Moisture conditions are again very unfavorable. No release expected. Low Risk of exposure. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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