Pollen Transport Forecast, 25 January 2001

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast


Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Ft. Worth

Low / Moderate



San Antonio


Date Issued: 25 January 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Thursday, January 25 - TX/OK/AR: Cloudy south and west; mostly sunny north and east. High pressure centered over MO shifting east as a cold front approaches from the southern Rockies. Some precipitation (already moving into the Panhandles this afternoon) will affect mostly the northern sections tonight and Friday. Late night clouds/fog/drizzle southern sections tonight. Cold front moving through the region on Friday will get hung up in southern TX, setting the stage for a wet weekend. Highs today mostly 40's and 50's, lows tonight ranging from 20's northwest to 50's south. Highs Friday ranging from the 40's to 60's.

Trajectory weather: Becoming mostly sunny east with a high in the upper 50's; cloudy west, slight chance of a late day shower, early high in the mid-50's dropping into the 40's this afternoon. Rain likely tonight, changing to sleet and snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 20's. Snow likely Friday, high in the low to mid-30's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** Mixed conditions on the Plateau today. Temperatures are in the mid-50's over most of the Plateau at early afternoon.... cooler toward the northwest. Winds are light to moderate in the south and east, becoming moderate to strong in the central and west. Real questions today are the humidities. They are dropping slowly and nearing the tolerance range in the east, perhaps entering it later this afternoon. Moisture values are alternately rising and falling in the south, though staying well above the tolerance range. In the west, relative humidities have remained above 70% through 1pm local time, far outside the favorable range. Central sections have shown the most potentially favorable humidities. Readings at Junction dropped from 89% at 11am to 61% at 1pm. While this is above the favorable range (50% or less), a drop of this magnitude is often enough to allow some release. Overall.... some release is expected today, with more release from the central Plateau than other areas. Moderate Risk of exposure for areas of central and west-central TX this afternoon, extending into western sections of north TX tonight. Low to Moderate Risk along the fringes of the Plateau and for central north TX. Low Risk of exposure for residents of OK and beyond from this source region, as rain and snow are likely tonight. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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