University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday-Sunday, January 26-28 - TX/OK/AR: Variably to mostly cloudy today south-central and southeast TX; mostly sunny to partly cloudy elsewhere. Cold front moving through the region today will stall out across southern TX later today and tonight. High pressure situated to the north by tonight. The front will serve as a focus for rain.... beginning today in southern and southeast TX.... and spreading to other parts of the region Saturday and Sunday as strong upper-atmospheric energy approaches from the west. Wet most of TX on Saturday, snow toward the Panhandles and dry northeast areas. Smorgasbord of wet weather region-wide on Sunday. Highs in the 50's and 60's today, ranging from the 30's to 60's Saturday and Sunday. Lows ranging from the 20's northwest to 50's south tonight and Saturday night.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy east and central Plateau; mostly sunny west. High in the 60's. Becoming cloudy tonight, lows in the 20's to low 30's. Cloudy with a chance of snow Saturday, high in the 30's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** Mixed, mostly unfavorable conditions on the Plateau today. Temperatures are in the 60's this afternoon, favorable for release. Humidities remain quite high over the east and central Plateau.... but are favorable in the west during the afternoon. Winds are light Plateau-wide today. Some release is possible in the western Plateau today. Release amounts elsewhere will be very light. Moderate Risk of exposure for west-central TX... northward into the west-TX plains tonight. Low Risk of exposure for other areas today, and for the Panhandle region on Saturday. The Dallas / Ft. Worth area is at Moderate Risk of exposure due to release from the Arbuckle Mountain source region. Saturday and Sunday... wet weather expected through the period, and markedly cooler on Saturday. Low Risk of exposure Saturday and Sunday. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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