University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast


Date Issued: 26 January 2001

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Friday-Sunday, January 26-28 - TX/OK/AR: Variably to mostly cloudy today south-central and southeast TX; mostly sunny to partly cloudy elsewhere. Cold front moving through the region today will stall out across southern TX later today and tonight. High pressure situated to the north by tonight. The front will serve as a focus for rain.... beginning today in southern and southeast TX.... and spreading to other parts of the region Saturday and Sunday as strong upper-atmospheric energy approaches from the west. Wet most of TX on Saturday, snow toward the Panhandles and dry northeast areas. Smorgasbord of wet weather region-wide on Sunday. Highs in the 50's and 60's today, ranging from the 30's to 60's Saturday and Sunday. Lows ranging from the 20's northwest to 50's south tonight and Saturday night.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy today, high in the 50's. Fair tonight, low in the mid-30's. Partly cloudy Saturday, high in the 50's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to Serious Threat *** Conditions are favorable for pollen release today. Afternoon temperatures will be from 55-60 for an extended period. Humidities are already well-below the 50% benchmark at late morning. Winds are moderate to strong. Pollen release is likely. Moderate to High risk of exposure for residents of far southern MO... far northern AR... extreme southwest KY and far northwest TN. Moderate Risk of exposure for other areas of western and south-central TN and northern AL. Probable Low Risk beyond that time. Residents of the cities of Memphis, Nashville, and Birmingham may feel some effects from today's release. Saturday and Sunday.... cooler temperatures and lighter winds are expected on Saturday. Rain is likely on Sunday with a high near 40. Very little to no release expected Saturday or Sunday. TK

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

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