University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Thursday, February 1 - TX/OK/AR: High pressure over the region. Cold front will swing through the northern and eastern parts of the region later today and tonight. Only clouds associated with the frontal passage; no rain expected. However, moisture is seeping into deep south and southeast TX. Mostly cloudy there today and tonight with a chance of rain mainly in the coastal bend and deep south TX. Highs today and Friday in the 40's and 50's. Lows tonight 10's and 20's north, 30's and 40's south.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy today with a high in the mid-50's. Tonight... clear and cold on the Plateau, low in the mid-20's. Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle near to and south of the southern fringes of the Plateau, lows in the 30's. Morning clouds Friday, becoming partly cloudy, high in the 50's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Mixed, mostly favorable conditions across the Plateau. Temperatures mostly in the upper 40's and low 50's at noon... forecast to top out in the low 50's west, mid to upper 50's east. These are somewhat favorable to favorable for release. Humidities at that time are either already favorable or falling toward the 50% benchmark. At least somewhat favorable values will be present over most of the Plateau this afternoon. Winds vary from mostly light in the western sections to moderate in the eastern sections. Some pollen release is likely today. Through this evening.... Moderate Risk of exposure for south-central TX, including the metro areas of Austin and San Antonio. Moderate Risk of exposure for the Edwards Plateau region. Tonight and Friday... Moderate Risk of exposure for the Edwards Plateau and south-central TX. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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