University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday-Sunday, February 2-4 - TX/OK/AR: High pressure governing the weather during the next few days. Mostly cloudy today with a chance of rain in far south and southeast TX; clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Dry weather region-wide Saturday and Sunday with a warming trend. Highs in the 40's and 50's today, 50's and 60's Saturday, 50's to 70's Sunday. Lows tonight from the 20's to 40's, mostly 30's and 40's Saturday night. Saturday update: current forecast on track. Dry cold front moving through the region tonight and Sunday, resulting in a few clouds and shifting winds.

Trajectory weather: Austin: Mostly sunny today, high in the low 60's. Clear to partly cloudy tonight, low in the 30's. Partly to mostly cloudy on Sunday, high in the 50's. Junction / San Angelo: Sunny today, high in the low 60's. Clear tonight, lows in the 30's. Sunny Sunday, high in the 60's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Favorable conditions for pollen release today. Temperatures are favorable by late morning. Humidities are dropping and will be favorable by midday over most sections of the Plateau. Winds are moderate in the east and central, strong in the west. Pollen release likely; however it is late in the season for mountain cedar. Release may also include pollen from eastern red cedar in some areas and also American elm. The difference in trajectories indicates that some of the airborne pollen will flow out ahead of the cold front, while the rest gets caught up in the frontal passage and is subjected to the northerly winds behind the front. Moderate Risk of exposure for a broad area of central and northern TX... far southeast OK... and southwest AR today and tonight. This includes the metro areas of Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas / Ft. Worth. Moderate Risk of exposure for eastern TX on Sunday... as well as southern AR, far northeast LA, and north-central MS. TK

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Thomas Keever (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU), Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104), and C.E. Main (Department of Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7618). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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