University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 01 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 01  TX/OK/AR: Cold northern air continues to be established over the southern plains.  However a weak weather system will move through the area today and tonight bringing the possibility of snow to the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.  Along the edge of the Edwards Plateau precipitation will fall primarily as rain.  To the north cloudy conditions will prevail with a chance of precipitation, as snow, for the southern half of the state.  This includes Oklahoma City and Ardmore.  High temperatures in the central Texas region will only be in the mid to lower 40 s with a 10 degree cooling towards the north as Tulsa will only reach the mid 30 s.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 20 s to low 30 s in the Texas region and upper 20 s to upper teens along a north to south pathway across the state of Oklahoma.   The Ozark Mountain region will remain below freezing today and into the teen tonight.  On Wednesday the weather system will push over the area toward the southeast with cloudy conditions breaking up towards along the western portion of the Edwards Plateau and to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains.  The clearing skies will result in very cold temperatures.  Across Texas highs in the mid- 40 s will give way to lows in the lower to mid 20 s.  Oklahoma will see temperatures in the teens and the Ozark Mountain region will be in single digits.  Winds will be moderate to light and out of the north to northeast throughout the region.       

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau show movement to the southwest.  The moderate to light winds results in a reduction of overall travel distance keeping them relatively close to their point of origin.  The trajectories will travel through cloudy conditions, increased humidity, cold temperatures and moderate to light winds over the next couple of days.  A chance of show on today will occur throughout the hill country and the Edwards Plateau, ending during the afternoon and/or evening.  Accumulations of more than an inch are possible.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau cold temperatures, precipitation, cloudy skies and moderate winds will combine to produce conditions unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow.  The area should be clear of significant Juniperus ashei pollen concentrations.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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