University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 02 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 02  TX/OK/AR: Cold northern air continues to be established over the southern plains with high temperatures on Wednesday only reaching into the lower 40 s and high 30 s.  Northern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma continue to see a chance of snow flurries this morning moving to the east and diminishing through the day.  During the afternoon and evening clearing will allow temperatures to fall to their lowest levels seen this winter.  Low temperatures to the south will be in the lower 20 s to upper teens whereas in Oklahoma and Ozark Mountains they will border on the single digits.  Winds will be moderate during the day falling to light overnight and out of the north to northwest, region wide.  On Thursday, high pressure will begin to build.  A regional warming will occur ahead of a wet weather system arriving on Friday.  In Texas high temperatures will be in the low 50 s across the region.  In Oklahoma high temperatures will be five degrees cooler.   Low s will see the greatest warming with Thursday night temperatures in the mid 30 s to the south and lower 30 s north.  Winds will switch to the south to southwest and be moderate to light on a north to south gradient.        

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau show initial movement to the south at a relatively slow pace then a quick reversal on Thursday as high pressure begins and the southerly winds build.  Cold conditions during today and this evening will break as warmer air builds on Thursday.  The trajectories will travel through clearing conditions, decreased humidity, but cold temperatures and moderate to light winds over the next couple of days. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau very cold temperatures, recent precipitation, drying conditions, and moderate to light winds will produce conditions unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow.  The area should be clear of significant Juniperus ashei pollen concentrations.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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