University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 03 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Thursday, January 03  TX/OK/AR: High pressure associates with the cold northern air that has been centered over the southern plains will begin to move east as the winter storm on the east coast moves out.  This will return southerly winds to the area and result in a general warming of high temperatures.  High temperature readings throughout the southern plains will be in the low 50 s to upper 40 s today with sunny conditions.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures will reach the mid 40 s but the Ozark Mountain region will remain around freezing.  The shift in winds will increase to moderate wind strengths to the north but stay calm to the south.  As the afternoon progresses the southerly winds will bring increasing moisture causing clouds to build across the southern area towards the evening.  Low temperatures on Thursday will return to the mid 30 s to the south, mid 20 s in Oklahoma and back to the teens in the Ozark Mountains.  On Friday, conditions will continue to warm with high temperatures again reaching the low 50 s but low temperatures will stay in the mid 40 s.  Southerly winds will continue to bring in moisture and cloudy conditions will prevail across the Edwards Plateau and hill country.  Clouds will build across northern Texas and Oklahoma with a significant chance of rain occurring in the Dallas area and southern Oklahoma.  Winds will continue out of the south at moderate strengths.       

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau are caught in the shift to southerly winds and flow to the north.  The air mass from the Austin area moves quickly across Oklahoma whereas those from the western Edwards Plateau are slowed.  Conditions colder than optimum will occur today and this evening along with increasing humidity as cloudy conditions build on Friday.  The trajectories show relatively stable air masses as they travel over the next 48 hours. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau cold temperatures, recent precipitation, and moderate to light winds will produce conditions unfavorable for pollen release today.  Increasing humidity and precipitation on Friday going into Saturday is also not conducive to pollen release.  Conditions will improve at the beginning of the week, however today s small break in the weather is probably too small to result in major pollen releases.  If some pollen is shed, then the southerly breezes should carry it quickly to the north affecting areas of northern Texas and Oklahoma.  However, forecast conditions suggest that the area should be clear of significant Juniperus ashei pollen concentrations.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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