University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 04January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, January 04  TX/OK/AR: Precipitation will occur over the area for the next two days as an upper level low pressure heads east out of the Rocky Mountains towards the Southeastern U.S.  Today , high pressure over eastern Texas and Louisiana will continue to move east creating moderate southerly winds ahead of the low moving in from the west.  Early conditions will be relatively dry but moisture will begin to build and mixed clouds and sun will give way to mostly cloudy conditions.  Regional wind fields will be moderate and from the south, varying to the southeast or southwest depending upon location.  Areas on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and to the north have significant chances of rain forecast for later this afternoon and evening and continuing on Saturday.  High temperatures to the south in central Texas will be in the low 50 s and upper 40 s throughout Oklahoma and the lower 40 s in the Ozark Mountains.  Low temperatures will be in the 40 s to the south, mid 30 s in Oklahoma and lower 30 s in the Ozark Mountains.  Precipitation is forecast throughout the area as rain, but mixed conditions and some snow may occur from Tulsa to the Northeast into the Ozark Mountain area depending upon the timing and local temperature conditions.  Rainy conditions will occur throughout eastern areas of the southern plains on Saturday.  Temperatures remain stable but wind strength increases from moderate to strong across the area.  Clearing will begin in the afternoon, initially in the west and south, with partly cloudy conditions maintained in eastern Texas and Oklahoma going into Sunday.        

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau initially travel north then are caught in the shift to northerly winds and flow to the south and southeast.  The air masses from each of the forecast points make the turn from north to south over the Oklahoma region.  Conditions colder than optimum will occur both days with initial drier conditions giving way to increased humidity and significant chances of precipitation both this afternoon, evening and on into Wednesday. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau cold temperatures, increasing humidity, and moderate to light winds will produce conditions unfavorable for pollen release today.  Increasing humidity and precipitation this afternoon and on Saturday is also not conducive to pollen release.   However as today begins initial drier conditions may lead to some pollen becoming entrained in the winds.  If so the air masses trajectory conditions show rising air, which is conducive to entrainment and travel.  So if some pollen is released, conditions may deposit it along trajectories that travel over Dallas and into the central Oklahoma region.  For these reasons the threat to the Dallas area is listed as moderate.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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