Pollen Transport Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Ft. Worth

Low/Low (Sun)

Austin

Low/Mod to High (Sun)

San Antonio

Low/Mod to High (Sun)

Date Issued: 05 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Saturday, January 05  TX/OK/AR: Precipitation will be ending today as an upper level low pressure moves over the area and to the southeast.  Precipitation will occur primarily along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and north into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Partly cloudy conditions will occur along the western side of the Plateau.  Winds will be moderate to strong, out of the north to northwest throughout the day with a reduction of wind strength overnight.  High temperatures on the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will be in the mid 50 s with cooler conditions to the north and warming to the south.  Lows will be in the upper 30 s and again cooler to the north and warmer to the south.  In Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains high temperatures will be in the mid 40 s with lows around freezing.  Clearing will occur overnight and Sunday promises to be sunny throughout the region.  High pressure begins to build and temperatures will head toward the 60 s across Texas.  In Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains high temperatures will remain in the 40 s.  Winds will be from the north to northwest and be moderate to strong throughout the region.        

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas all move to the southeast towards the direction of the low pressure that is moving out of the area.  High pressure over the Rockies will continue to feed a north to northwest wind field today and tomorrow.   Cool, wet conditions will occur today but significant drying and warming will characterize Sunday. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today, Moderate to Serious threat Sunday *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today, Conditions for pollen release becoming quite favorable on Sunday as the region dries out. Over the plateau cool temperatures and high humidity will produce conditions unfavorable for pollen release today.  However, on Sunday warm conditions, sunny skies and moderate to strong winds will produce more favorable conditions for pollen release.  The air masses trajectory conditions show sinking air today, which is not conducive to entrainment and travel.  On Sunday conditions are much improved and pollen should move to the south and southeast.  Deposition will occur over the southern Edwards Plateau region towards the Gulf of Mexico.  For these reasons the threat to the San Antonio and Austin area is listed as Moderate to Serious.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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