University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 08 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 08  TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions will prevail across the southern plains as high pressure builds over the area.  Temperatures will continue to warm today and tomorrow with highs in the Texas region reaching the upper 60 s to low 70 s today and into the low to mid 70 s tomorrow.  The warming continues north today with high temperatures close to 70 in Oklahoma and into the 60 s in the Ozark Mountain region.  Lows throughout the region tonight will be in the 40 s.  On Wednesday the southern low temperatures will be in the lower 50 s to upper 40 s and 5 to 7 degrees cooler to the north.  Winds on both days will be from the south to southwest across the region and be moderate on Wednesday gaining strength on Thursday as a front begins to cross the area.  Late Wednesday, skies will become partly cloudy across the region ahead of a front moving through on Thursday.  Model predictions show cloudiness but little support for precipitation.  However, a cut-off low developing to the west may result in significant precipitation over the weekend and into the beginning of next week.           

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas move to the north/northeast throughout the day.  The Austin site shows trajectories traveling to the east of Oklahoma into Arkansas, whereas those from the western side of the Plateau move over the Dallas area into central Oklahoma.  The high pressure over the region forces the trajectories to have sinking characteristics and results in the travel paths being near ground level. Warm, dry conditions will prevail today and tomorrow with sunny clear skies.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** High threat today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today. Over the plateau warm temperatures and low humidity will produce conditions being very favorable for pollen release today and tomorrow.  However, the air mass trajectories show characteristics of sinking air, which are not wholly conducive to entrainment and travel.  Pollen that is released and entrained will move to the north and northeast over the Dallas and Fort Worth areas into the Oklahoma City region.  Deposition of pollen entrained on Monday will occur over these areas.  Conditions for release will continue Wednesday ahead of a cold front.  Increasing humidity may limit release later in the day but stronger wind fields may compensate resulting in significant entrainment and travel of pollen tomorrow.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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