University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 09 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 09  TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions will prevail across the southern plains as high pressure remains over the area today.  Temperatures will be warm today but significant cooling will occur tonight and tomorrow as a cold front pushes south from Nebraska across the area.  High temperatures in Texas will be in the upper 70 s across the eastern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and reach the low 80 s to the west.  Low temperatures will cool to the upper 40 s.  To the north, in Oklahoma and the Ozark region high temperatures will reach the upper 60 s to low 70 s with slightly cooler conditions northward and in the Ozark Mountain area.  Low temperatures will be in the lower 40 s.  The cold front will push across the area from north to south beginning tonight.  Southerly winds will begin to reverse as it passes.  This reversal will occur around midnight in northern Oklahoma, early morning in southern Oklahoma and by noon on Thursday in central Texas.  Cloudy conditions and increasing humidity will accompany the passage of the cold front, but weather models indicate little support for precipitation accompanying the weather front as it passes.  However a slight chance of showers or sprinkles does exist, especially over the Ozark Mountain region.  Both high and low temperatures on Thursday will drop 15 to 20 degrees as the front passes.             

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas move to the north throughout today and then are turned southward ahead of the passage of the cold front from the north.  The Austin site shows trajectories traveling into east central Oklahoma, whereas those from the western side of the Plateau remain primarily in Texas and move over the Dallas metropolitan area.  The trajectory characteristics from the western side of the Edwards Plateau shows movement along the surface whereas from the eastern edge, some lift occurs off of the Plateau as the air masses move north.  Warm, dry conditions will prevail today with sunny clear skies.  Tomorrow increasing clouds and humidity will combine with colder temperatures to reduce optimal conditions for pollen release and travel.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today. Over the plateau warm temperatures and low humidity will produce conditions being very favorable for pollen release today.  Reports are that areas with trees are seeing significant releases of pollen into the atmosphere.  Therefore, the areas where trees are growing will be severely affected.  During the day this pollen will move to the north with significant deposition in the Dallas/ Fort Worth area, north to the Arbuckle Mountains and southeastern Oklahoma.  Conditions for release will continue Thursday but movement of the cold front across the area will reverse the winds and carry pollen to the south.  Increasing humidity may limit some release on Thursday but with the warm weather of the last two days a good supply of pollen for entrainment and travel should be available.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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