University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, January 11  TX/OK/AR: Cloudy conditions will prevail over the southern half of the southern plains today.  Low and mid-level moisture will be pushed into the Texas area from a cut-off low pressure system in northern Mexico.  Rain will develop south in northern Mexico and eventually along the Gulf Coast but the models indicate that there is little support for precipitation to the north.  Winds will remain moderate to light throughout the area from the north.  High temperatures will remain in the mid 50 s today with lows in the upper 30 s to 40 s.  The cloudy conditions will clear tomorrow from the north and west resulting in a 5 to 7 degree warming across the region and a similar range of low temperatures Saturday night.  To the north in Oklahoma, High temperatures today will be in the mid to low 50 s with lows around freezing.  A similar warming will occur tomorrow with sunny conditions and clear nights.  The Ozark Mountain region will remain clear and colder with high temperatures in the 40 s and lows below freezing on both days.  Winds for the Oklahoma and Ozark Mountain area will be out of the north to northwest and moderate to light for the next two days.             

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas sites all move to the south today under the influence of the cold air from the north.   The upper level trajectories from the western areas are eventually influenced by the movement east of the cut-off low pressure in northern Sonora Mexico.  Conditions will remain relatively warm today with increased humidity and moderate winds from the north.  The skies will be cloudy to the south as mid-level moisture is pushed through northern Mexico.  Tomorrow s forecast shows increased clearing, a relaxation of the humidity and warming  temperatures.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe/Moderate threat today *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. Over the plateau relatively warm temperatures but increased humidity will produce conditions being favorable for pollen release today.  Reports are that areas with trees are seeing have experienced significant releases of pollen into the atmosphere.  Therefore, the areas where trees are growing will probably remain severely affected.  However, the movement of pollen long distances will be reduced by the movement characteristics of the trajectories to the south and increased humidity and precipitation along the Texas/Mexico border.  Deposition in the southern areas of the Edwards Plateau and the urban areas of San Antonio and Austin can be expected.  However, only moderate chances of deposition southward towards Corpus Christi and Laredo is expected.  Increasing humidity and cool temperatures may limit release on Friday but the warm weather of the last days should have provided a good supply of pollen for entrainment and travel.  Therefore conditions on Friday may not be as bad but some influx is again expected in the southern areas of Texas

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to ForecastingHome Page