University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Saturday, January 12  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build over the southern plains today and most of tomorrow bringing sunny clear skies both days to Texas but partly cloudy conditions will occur to the north with some clearing overnight.  High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the lower 60 s to the south and mid to upper 50 s in Oklahoma.  The Ozark Mountain will barely reach the 50 degree mark today and tomorrow. Low temperatures will be in the 30 s throughout the region with conditions in the 20s in the Ozark Mountain area.  Winds will be from the north region wide on Saturday but over Saturday night a strong trough will move through the area switching the winds to the south/southwest.  This switch will occur from the west to east as the trough moves over the region and cause wind speeds to climb from moderate to strong in the north and west.  This system carries little moisture with it so humidity levels will remain low.               

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas sites all initially move to the south at low levels as the cold north flow continues.  As the trough passes on Saturday night/Sunday morning winds will switch to the south/southwest and increased wind strength will cause the trajectories to travel further along a northerly pathway.   Conditions will remain relatively warm today and tomorrow with temperatures in the 60 s and low humidity.  Sunny clear skies will occur both today and Sunday.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel Saturday and Sunday *** very favorable conditions for pollen release Saturday and Sunday. Over the plateau relatively warm temperatures, low humidity and increased wind speeds will produce conditions very favorable for pollen release today and tomorrow.  Reports are that areas with trees are experiencing significant pollen releases.  Therefore, areas where trees are growing will probably remain severely affected.  However, the movement of pollen long distances will be reduced by the travel characteristics of the trajectories.  Deposition in the southern areas of the Edwards Plateau and the urban areas of San Antonio and Austin can be expected to be Severe on Saturday.  With the wind shift on Sunday some of the depositional pressure will be relieved in San Antonio leaving only a Moderate chance but a severe threat continues in Austin.  A low threat of deposition southward towards Corpus Christi and Laredo is forecast for Saturday before the winds turn to the north and the trajectories travel back over less populated areas on the Edwards Plateau.  The trajectory from Austin may bring pollen close to the Dallas area on Sunday but travel characteristics for the atmosphere are not good for entrainment.  However a moderate chance is forecast.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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