University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Monday, January 14  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build over the southern plains today and tonight bringing sunny clear skies with seasonal temperatures throughout.  Winds will generally be from the north to northwest and moderate today but switching to the south/southwest as the high pressure begins to move to the east/northeast tomorrow.  High temperatures today will be in the mid 60 s across Texas and in mid to upper 50 s in Oklahoma.  The Ozark Mountain area will only reach the upper 40 s today.  The clear skies and calming winds overnight will result in low temperatures hovering around the freezing mark across Texas.  To the north temperatures will be in the mid to lower 20 s in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Weather conditions on Tuesday will remain sunny but increasing clouds will result in partly cloudy skies on Tuesday night.  High temperatures will be very similar to those on Monday.  Increased wind strength on Tuesday will result in a 10 degree warming of overnight lows as the atmosphere remains mixed and partly cloudy conditions prevail over the region.                  

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas sites initially sweep to the south and west then move steadily north.  As the high pressure builds, the trajectories move on the western side of Texas to the north across western Oklahoma and into the Great Plains.  Conditions will remain relatively warm today and tomorrow with temperatures in the 60 s and low humidity.  Sunny clear skies will occur today and tomorrow but increasing clouds will arrive Tuesday night.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** High threat of pollen travel today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau warm temperatures, low humidity and moderate wind speeds increasing tomorrow will produce conditions very favorable for pollen release.  Reports indicate pollen release continues therefore areas where trees are growing will remain severely affected.  Trajectory conditions indicate very good conditions for pollen entrainment and travel as well.  The western Edwards Plateau area shows trajectory pathways sweeping over the areas of San Antonio and Austin, therefore Severe conditions can be expected.  The wind shift then takes the trajectories from the eastern and western Plateau to the west as they begin to move northward.  Therefore the areas of Lubbock and Amarillo will experience Severe threat for the influx of Juniperus ashei pollen.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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