University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 15  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will move to the east over Arkansas today as low pressure builds over eastern New Mexico.  This combination will result in a south to southwesterly flow into the southern plains resulting in seasonal temperatures and sunny skies today.  Increased clouds tonight will build across the northern area with mostly cloudy and/or mixed conditions on Wednesday and partly cloudy conditions Wednesday night.  Today, high temperatures across Texas will be in the mid to upper 60 s with lows in the mid 40 s overnight.  On Wednesday high temperatures will rise by 5 to 7 degrees into the mid 70 s as will low temperatures to the east.  On the western side of the Plateau, temperatures will fall off by 5 to 7 degrees Wednesday night.  To the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark region high temperatures today will be in the upper 50 s to low 60 s in Oklahoma and upper 40 s in the Ozark Mountain region today and tomorrow.  Low temperatures will be in the 40 s in Oklahoma and near freezing in the Ozark Mountains today falling by 10 to 15 degrees tomorrow night.  Winds throughout the region will be from the south to southeast switching to the south to southwest overnight and into tomorrow.  Moderate to strong winds will occur to the north around Oklahoma City and Tulsa                  

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas sites show a northward movement with very buoyant air.  The trajectories from the eastern side of the Plateau and the northern area around San Angelo move westerly as they travel north by-passing the Dallas/Ft Worth area and urban centers in Oklahoma.  The trajectory from Junction, however shows the low elevation winds being turned by the development of a warm front passing through Oklahoma later this afternoon and tonight bringing the trajectory over central Oklahoma possible as far north as Tulsa.  Skies will be clear today and humidity low but increasing cloudiness will occur throughout the day and mixed conditions to partly cloudy skies will occur tomorrow with a slight chance of showers in northeastern Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** High threat of travel today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau warm temperatures, low humidity and moderate wind speeds today will produce conditions very favorable for pollen release.  Reports indicate pollen release continues therefore areas where trees are growing will remain severely affected.  Northward trajectories from the sites show very good conditions for pollen entrainment and travel as well.  The northerly movement of pollen should affect the Dallas/Ft. Worth area but may bring some relief to the San Antonio as local releases move northward from the urban area.  The curvature of the trajectory from the southern Plateau area represented by Junction suggests that Oklahoma may also see significant deposition tonight and into tomorrow from these sources.  The increasing humidity may act to increase deposition so timing of the developing weather pattern in Oklahoma will determine the impact. 

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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