University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 17  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated today by upper elevation westerly flow and the position of a cold front that will center across southern Texas.  Across the southern plains temperatures will remain seasonal with highs reaching the upper 60 s to low 70 s on the western edge of the Edwards Plateau with mixed clouds and sun becoming partly cloudy overnight.  To the northeast temperatures will be 10 degrees cooler as skies will be mostly cloudy during the day.  Low temperatures will be in the 30 s to the northwest grading to the low 50 s along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.  Winds will remain very light throughout today and tonight.  Wind direction to the north will be from the north and south of the stalled cold front from the south to southwest.  Mid-level moisture down to the surface will result in higher humidity than has occurred over the past week.  On Thursday, Temperatures will cool 5 to 7 degrees with the cold front moving slightly southward.  Low temperatures will follow a similar pattern as Wednesday night.  Winds across the region will increase to moderate levels and be from the north to northeast except on the western side of the plateau where they will come from the southeast.  To the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region, high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low 40 s to upper 30 s with lows in the twenties and teens.  Similar levels will be reached on Thursday as well.  Winds will be from the north to northeast across the area and mostly cloudy conditions will prevail with an increasing chance of rain on Thursday night.                  

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas sites show  a north then eastward component with very buoyant air.  Temperatures will remain at a seasonal level throughout the region.  Very light winds at the surface may hamper pollen entrainment, but once into the atmosphere rising air will quickly get caught into strong winds at the upper levels and move quickly to the east.  Throughout the area cloudy skies will prevail as mid-elevation humidity increases.  Rain showers are forecast to develop over northeast Texas and Arkansas on Thursday.  

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat of travel today *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau warm temperatures but light wind speeds today will produce conditions favorable for pollen release, however humidity is on the rise and cloudy conditions throughout the region may dampen some of the heavy pollination.  Reports indicate pollen release continues therefore areas where trees are growing may continue to be severely affected.  Trajectory characteristics show good conditions for pollen travel with fast upper elevational winds taking the air masses quickly towards the east coast.  The movement of pollen to the north and then eastward may affect the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, Oklahoma City and Tulsa. However, the very light winds and other conditions at the surface may hamper pollen getting and maintaining entrainment for any amount of time.  Pollen should move off the western edge of the Edwards Plateau into the areas around Austin, Waco and Dallas therefore with their proximity to the blooming population severe levels may be attained.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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