Pollen Transport Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Ft. Worth

Mod

Austin

Mod

San Antonio

Mod

Date Issued: 18 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, January 18  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated today and tomorrow by the movement of an upper level weather system.  High pressure over the central plains will come into contact with a fast moving weather front that passes over the region tonight and tomorrow.  High temperatures throughout the southern areas will remain seasonal but cooler than the past week with most places reaching the 60 s today and warming by 5 to 7 degrees tomorrow.  Lows tonight will also be warm and in the mid to upper 40 s.  Cooler conditions will occur tomorrow night as the skies clear late.  As the weather system moves across the northern areas precipitation will develop over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.  High temperatures on both days will barely reach the 40 s in Oklahoma and be 5 degrees cooler in the Ozark Mountain region.  Cloudy skies today will increase and precipitiation in the form of freezing rain and/or snow will occur overnight and into tomorrow morning.  Winds across the entire area will be light to moderate except for the passage of the weather system out of the west overnight when the western portion of Texas and central Oklahoma wind speeds will be strong at 20 to 25 miles per hour.  On Saturday conditions will be calm with northerly winds and temperatures  in the same range as Friday.  Skies will begin to clear towards the afternoon and evening.                    

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas sites show the wind pattern looping around Texas.  For the most part, winds at the surface level remain in Texas.  On the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau upper elevation winds head east whereas on the western side of the area it is the surface winds that are caught into fast moving winds blowing to the east.  Temperatures will remain at a seasonal level throughout the region.  Light to moderate winds at the surface and buoyant air should entrain any pollen that is released but increasing humidity and cloudy conditions throughout the region may dampen pollen release.  Rain showers turning to snow and freezing rain are forecast to develop over northern Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas on Friday night.  

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat of travel today *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau warm temperatures and moderate wind speeds will produce conditions favorable for pollen release, however humidity is on the rise and cloudy conditions throughout the region should dampen some of the heavy pollination.  Reports indicate pollen release continues therefore areas where trees are growing may continue to be severely affected.  The travel of entrained pollen back over the source areas should increase pollen deposition loads. Trajectory characteristics show good conditions for pollen travel with strong winds taking the air masses quickly towards the east coast at specific elevation.  The movement of winds over the region suggests that pollen may be a serious problem in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, along with those areas in which the trees grow. 

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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