University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Saturday, January 19  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains is on the tail end of the movement of an upper level weather system.  Precipitation will occur across eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas this morning shifting towards the east as the day progresses.  High pressure will establish over the Rocky Mountains resulting in moderate northerly winds throughout the region.  Skies will be partly cloudy but clearing towards the evening.  Tonight and tomorrow a high pressure will build over the Texas area swinging the winds to the south to southeast and bringing dryer warmer air into the region for Sunday.  High temperatures across Texas will barely get to 60 degrees today with most areas firmly entrenched in the 50 s.  Lows will be in the low 30 s to just below freezing.  To the north high temperatures will be in the 40 s in Oklahoma and 30 s across the Ozark Mountains.  Lows will be below freezing.  On Sunday, conditions continue to warm across the region as dryer air moves across.  A trough develops over the panhandle and moves through the area but with little precipitation associated with it.  High temperatures in the Texas region will warm by 5 to 7 degrees into the mid to upper 60 s but low temperatures will remain in the lower 30 s as the skies begin to clear.  A similar warming will occur in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region but highs will only reach the mid 50 s to mid 40 s.  Low temperatures will be in the low 30 s to mid 20 s.                   

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the western sites in Texas initially move to the south and then are caught in east to northeasterly flow bringing them back around and to the north.  The timing of the trajectory from Austin shows a continued southerly coarse throughout the forecast period.  Temperatures will warm into the upper 50 s today but high levels of humidity will linger across the region and only in the northwestern sections of the state will sunny clear skies prevail.  Elsewhere mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies predominate, however dryer air will continue to flow into the region.  Cooler air from the north will initially result in the trajectories moving near to ground surface with minor amount of lift during the later portions of the trajectories.  On Sunday trajectories take a predominantly northerly direction then turn east as westerly flow is widespread across the state.   

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat of travel today, High threat of travel tomorrow *** favorable conditions for pollen release today, very favorable conditions for pollen release tomorrow. Over the plateau temperatures will barely warm to favorable conditions.  In addition moderate wind speeds and drying conditions in the atmosphere should produce favorable conditions for pollen release.  However, cloudy conditions throughout the region and precipitation during the past 24 hours in many regions should dampen some of the heavy pollination.  Reports indicate pollen release continues therefore areas where trees are growing may continue to be severely affected.  This includes the urban areas bordering the southwestern and southern margins of the Edwards Plateau (Austin, San Antonio).  Travel conditions are not particularly good for long distance dispersal therefore only a moderate threat is listed for today and should only include areas within Texas such as Dallas/Ft. Worth and areas to the west such as Midland and Lubbock.  On Sunday, conditions improve dramatically with warm temperatures and dry, sunny conditions.  Winds will be from the south to southwest and trajectories appear to move slightly northward and then to the east.  There are very favorable conditions for pollen release and travel but affected areas should remain again within the state of Texas and to the east.  Severe conditions will again occur in areas where the tree populations grow and areas to the north and east such as Dallas/Ft. Worth, Waco and Austin. 

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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