University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Monday, January 21  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by high pressure building over the Texas region today and the movement of a trough out of the west on Tuesday.  Warm temperatures will occur across the region with highs in Texas in the mid to upper 60 s and near 60 in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Lows will be in the mid 40 s south and upper 30 s to the north.  Sunny to mostly sunny skies will prevail today and into this evening turning partly cloudy across the region late tonight into tomorrow morning.  Winds will be from the south to southeast along the eastern portions of the Edwards Plateau and to the south to southwest to the west and north.  Moderate to light winds will occur to the south and moderate winds to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  On Tuesday, the high pressure will move to the east as the trough developing to the west moves into the area.  Overcast, cloudy to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region turning to mostly cloudy conditions overnight.  Sprinkles may occur along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and a 70% chance of precipitation is forecast for the Dallas area.  Winds across the region will be from the southwest and moderate to strong., especially in Oklahoma where winds from 20 to 30 mph are forecast for both Oklahoma City and Tulsa.  Temperatures, however, will remain warm and near 70 across Texas and in the lower 60 s to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains. 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move rapidly to the north.  The surface winds from Junction eventually stall over central Oklahoma.  Temperatures will be warm today and tomorrow with reasonably dry atmospheric conditions today.  Increasing clouds tonight and tomorrow will bring humidity levels up while reducing the amount of sunshine.  Today will see moderate winds calming overnight then very windy conditions will prevail tomorrow.  The air mass trajectories from Austin and Junction show characteristics that move along the ground surface with minor amount of lift during the later portions of the forecast period.  The trajectories from San Angelo and the northwestern portion of the population show better characteristics associated with entrainment and travel.  

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** High threat of travel today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau temperatures will warm well into favorable conditions today and tomorrow.  In addition moderate to strong wind speeds and drying conditions in the atmosphere should produce very favorable conditions for pollen release.  However, cloudy conditions throughout the region and precipitation on Tuesday should dampen heavy pollination later in the forecast period.  Reports indicate pollen release continues therefore areas where trees are growing may continue to be severely affected.  This includes the urban areas bordering the eastern and northern margins of the Edwards Plateau (Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth).  Travel conditions are good for long distance dispersal today but diminish this evening and tomorrow.  The moderate to strong winds will take any pollen entrained out of Texas over Oklahoma City and Tulsa during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that period increasing humidity and cloudy conditions should reduce the threat of pollen deposition, especially ahead of developing weather on Wednesday and Thursday.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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