University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 22  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by converging weather systems.  A low pressure system will move through the are today bringing much higher humidity, warmer temperatures and strong winds to the north ahead of a dropping cold front that should bring precipitation across the area on Wednesday night into Thursday.  Across Texas today high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70 s with low s in the 50 s to the south and east and upper 40 s to the west.  Winds will be from the south to southwest and moderate to strong from west to east. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy becoming partly cloudy tonight and tomorrow.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures will reach the mid 60 s with lows in the 40 s tonight. In the Ozark Mountains temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees cooler reaching the high 50 s but tonight s lows will be similar partly cloudy to mixed conditions will occur during the day with cloudiness increasing tonight.  Throughout the region very strong winds are forecast.  Oklahoma City is expecting 35 to 45 mile per hour winds during the day.  These will calm during the evening to moderate levels.  On Wednesday,  Warm temperatures will be prominent in the south with high temperatures again reaching the 70 s.  As the cold front moves southward into north Texas rain will develop with most areas forecast with a 50% chance of showers.  The timing will depend upon the movement of the front southward.  Winds will switch from primarily out of the south to coming from the north.  Cloudy skies with increasing chances of rain will predominate throughout the area. 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move rapidly to the north.  The surface winds from the western Edwards Plateau eventually stall ahead of the cold front and turn southward moving back into Texas.  Temperatures will be very warm today and tomorrow but atmospheric conditions will include increasing humidity and cloudy skies.  Today will see moderate to strong winds calming overnight then again tomorrow.  The air mass trajectories from Austin show characteristics of good lift as they travel northward.  Those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau show travel at ground level with little elevation gain for the lower trajectories and the upper elevational winds being influenced by a strong jet moving over the area towards the Great Lakes region.  

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat of travel today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau temperatures will warm well into very favorable conditions today and tomorrow.  In addition moderate to strong wind speeds will be present.  However, humid conditions, cloudy skies and atmospheric conditions not conducive to pollen entrainment and travel should limit the amount of pollen being dispersed.  Yesterday low pollen counts in Austin and reduced amounts in the western Edwards Plateau suggest that the end of the pollen season may be on its way.  Beyond today, cloudy conditions throughout the region and precipitation on Wednesday should dampen heavy pollination later in the forecast period.   Therefore, only a moderate risk is forecast for the urban areas around Austin, Waco and Dallas during the next forecast period. The moderate to strong winds will take any pollen entrained off of the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and over Tulsa and possibly Oklahoma City as well.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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