University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 23  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by the movement of a dry line from west to east and the subsequent movement of a cold front from the Oklahoma/Kansas border into Mexico.  Very warm conditions will prevail across Texas today as high temperatures reach the upper 70 s and low temperatures are in the 50 s ahead of the cold front.  As it pass temperatures will lower into the upper 30 s to low 40 s tonight.  Winds will be moderate to strong from the south/southwest then switching out of the north. However humidity will be high throughout the region and skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  Humidity will start to drop as the dry line passes and there is little support for sustained rain, especially on the western side of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north temperatures will also be warm prior to the passing of the cold front, but lows will be in the lower 30 s.  Instability will result in possible thunderstorms to the east over the Ozark Mountain region.  Skies will be cloudy with high humidity and moderate to strong winds will occur across the area from the north.  On Thursday, Cooler conditions associated with the cold front will continue to push southward out of Texas and into northern Mexico.  High temperatures in the Texas region will strive to get to 60 and lows will be in the twenties under clear skies.  To the north 40 s will rule and low temperatures will also be in the mid 20 s.  Moderate to strong winds from the north will continue.   

Trajectory weather: The surface air mass trajectories from Texas move towards the north and then are turned southward by the advancing cold front.  At higher elevations the trajectories reflect a strong west to east flow across the area.  Temperatures will be very warm today but atmospheric conditions will include increasing humidity and cloudy skies.  Today will see moderate winds today, tonight and again tomorrow.  The air mass trajectories show relatively good lift characteristics as they travel northward.  

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat of travel today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Over the plateau temperatures will warm well into very favorable conditions today then cool tomorrow.  In addition moderate wind speeds will be present.  However, humid conditions and cloudy skies with a threat of precipitation should limit the amount of pollen being dispersed.  Yesterday low pollen counts in Austin and reduced amounts in the western Edwards Plateau suggest that the end of the pollen season may be near.  Beyond today, cloudy conditions throughout the region and cooler temperatures on Thursday should dampen heavy pollination later in the forecast period.   Therefore, there is a low risk forecast for the urban areas around Austin, Waco and Dallas during the next forecast period.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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