University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Thursday, January 24  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by the movement of a cold front south across the Edwards Plateau today into northern Mexico.  Very warm conditions yesterday will cool dramatically with high temperatures in the upper 40 s to the west and mid to upper 50 s to the east.  Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20 s to 30 s.  With the passing of the cold front winds will be strong becoming northerly.  Cloudy skies will occur across the area today and tonight. The chance of precipitation is greater than 40% in Dallas, Waco and Austin this morning.  To the west showers, if they occur will be limited to early today with some isolated thunderstorm cells moving across the area.  To the north cloudy conditions will also prevail with a chance of showers along the southern Oklahoma and Texas border.  High temperatures will be in the mid 40 s and lows around freezing for Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Tomorrow the weather will move towards the east and high pressure will begin to move into the area.  Temperatures across the entire region will be in the 50 s with lows in the 30 s.  Mostly sunny to sunny conditions will prevail and a general temperature warming will begin for the weekend.   

Trajectory weather: The surface air mass trajectories from Texas move due south from their source areas as the cold front passes.  Air mass characteristics indicates that all of the colder air moves at ground level with very little rise.  Temperatures will be cool today but atmospheric conditions will include significant chances of rain to the east and thunderstorms over the western Edwards Plateau.  Cloudy skies will occur across the area and strong winds will blow from the north.    Conditions will improve tomorrow with clearing skies and an overall warming as high pressure begins to build over the region.   

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Cool temperatures, cloudy skies and the chance of significant precipitation to the east and showers over the west all combine to produce poor conditions for pollination, entrainment and travel over the region.  Yesterday low pollen counts across the area suggest that the end of the pollen season may be near.  Beyond today, skies will clear and temperatures warm on Friday into the weekend.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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