University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, January 25  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build across the southern plains today and tomorrow as the weather from the last couple days slides to the east.  Temperatures will begin to warm with highs expected to be in the upper 50 s across Texas and lower 50 s to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Clear skies tonight will result in greater radiational cooling therefore lows will be in the mid 30 s in eastern portions of Texas and near freezing to the west and north into Oklahoma and Ozark Mountains.  Flow across the region will switch from the northerly direction of the past couple of days to light to moderate southerly winds.  On Saturday temperatures will warm another 5 to 7 degrees with highs throughout the region in the mid 60 s to the south and lower 60 s north.  Clear sunny skies and light to moderate winds from the south to southwest are expected across the region.   

Trajectory weather: The surface air mass trajectories from Texas move due north on light to moderate southerly breezes from their source areas as high pressure builds across the area.  Air mass characteristics show pathways near the ground along each of the pathways with very little rise.  Temperatures will just reach the 60 s  today but  clear sunny skies will prevail.  Conditions will improve tomorrow with another day of sunny clear skies and an overall warming as high pressure moves over the region.   

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat of travel today *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Cool temperatures, but clear sunny skies will combine for favorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow.  Analysis of the pollen trend from the area indicates that the end of the pollen season is nearing.  However there is still a chance of heightened levels being carried downwind.  The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau all show northerly flow bringing entrained pollen over Dallas, and north over Oklahoma City and Tulsa.  However the travel characteristics show movement at ground level that may act as a filter to remove pollen from the atmosphere.  This action will further reducing overall levels.  Being the end of the pollen release season and poor travel conditions only moderate threats are forecast for areas along the trajectory pathways.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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