University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued:  30, January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 30  TX/OK/AR: Warm conditions will continue today to the south of a cold front that will sag across the area bringing widespread range of precipitation, thunderstorms, and strong winds.  For example the forecast high temperatures in San Antonio and Austin are in the mid 70 s but to the north the threat of freezing rain will occur throughout Oklahoma and may reach south of the Red River this afternoon and into evening.  Widespread precipitation will occur along a swath from northeast New Mexico towards northeast Oklahoma.  Rainfall amounts may be significant over the next 24 to 36 hours.  As the cold front sags to the south during today and tomorrow a well organized upper level low-pressure system will move across the area.  Ahead of the front, the mix of cold air may bring the chance of thunderstorms with hail as well as strong winds.  As the system moves through and temperatures drop the chance of a wintry mix of precipitation will increase across the area.  The weather system should begin to clear the area by Thursday afternoon with increased chance of clearing.  Clear conditions will begin in the west and move to the east on Thursday.  In northern most Oklahoma a chance of wrap around snows may occur behind the front after it has passed.

Trajectory weather: The surface air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move due north on moderate to strong southerly breezes from their source areas.  Air mass characteristics show pathways that travel near ground level then rise rapidly as they travel over the cold front moving south across Oklahoma into northern Texas. Temperatures will reach the upper 70 s today to the south, but will cool as the cold front passes.  An increasing chance of precipitation across the area may bring rains overnight and tomorrow.  Humid, overcast conditions prevail as the upper level low pressure weather system moves across the area to the north.

 Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Very warm temperatures will occur today, but skies will be overcast and cloudy and high humidity readings all combine for a low chance of significant pollen release.  The trees are near the end of their pollination cycle therefore adding to the low risk for release.  The trajectory forecasts travel straight into conditions with significant amounts of precipitation predicted therefore any possibility of significant downwind travel and  influx of pollen is low as well.  

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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