University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued:  31  January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Thursday, January 31  TX/OK/AR: Cool conditions will occur throughout the region today as a significant weather system move to the east away from the area. Across Texas, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 50 s with lows tonight in the 20 s and 30 s.  Rain showers will occur in northern Texas and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  These showers will move east this afternoon and evening bringing partly cloudy skies to the region.  On the western side of the Edwards Plateau, cooler temperatures and only partly cloudy skies will prevail today and tonight.  To the north, freezing rain and a wintry mix are forecast for the Oklahoma City and Tulsa areas, respectively.  Conditions will improve this afternoon and into the evening as the weather system moves to the northeast.  High temperatures will be in the upper 30 s with lows in the 20 s.  Tomorrow, high pressure begins to build in from the west.  Skies will clear, and warmer temperatures area forecast. A warm up of 5 to 10 degrees is expected to the north and similar temperature ranges as seen on Thursday are expected across the Texas region.

Trajectory weather: The surface air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move due south on moderate to strong northerly breezes from their source areas.  Air mass characteristics show pathways that travel near ground level nearly over their entire coarse. Temperatures will cool into the 50 s today and tomorrow with lows near freezing.  Overcast conditions prevail with a significant chance of rain to the east then the skies will begin to clear this evening and into tomorrow.

 Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cool temperatures, cloudy conditions and precipitation to the east will occur today, all combining for a low chance of significant pollen release.  The trees are at the end of their pollination cycle therefore adding to the low risk for significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere.  The trajectory forecasts travel due south at ground level therefore any possibility of significant downwind travel and  influx of pollen is low.  Note ****Because the pollination season for Juniperus ashei is at an end the last forecast will be posted tomorrow on the 1^st of February.  Thank you for your interest in this service and join us again next year.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to Forecasting Home Page