Pollen Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 01 January, 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 01  TX/OK/AR: Cold northern air continues to be established over the southern plains.  However a weak weather system will move through the area today and tonight bringing the possibility of snow to the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.  Along the edge of the Edwards Plateau precipitation will fall primarily as rain.  To the north cloudy conditions will prevail with a chance of precipitation, as snow, for the southern half of the state.  This includes Oklahoma City and Ardmore.  High temperatures in the central Texas region will only be in the mid to lower 40 s with a 10 degree cooling towards the north as Tulsa will only reach the mid 30 s.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 20 s to low 30 s in the Texas region and upper 20 s to upper teens along a north to south pathway across the state of Oklahoma.   The Ozark Mountain region will remain below freezing today and into the teen tonight.  On Wednesday the weather system will push over the area toward the southeast with cloudy conditions breaking up towards along the western portion of the Edwards Plateau and to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains.  The clearing skies will result in very cold temperatures.  Across Texas highs in the mid- 40 s will give way to lows in the lower to mid 20 s.  Oklahoma will see temperatures in the teens and the Ozark Mountain region will be in single digits.  Winds will be moderate to light and out of the north to northeast throughout the region.       

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains travel south into Arkansas.  Very cold temperatures will prevail in the Ozark Mountains with the high s both today and tomorrow not getting above freezing.  Low temperatures today will be in the teens and in the single digits tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies today will begin to clear tonight sunny but frigid conditions forecast for Wednesday.  Winds will be moderate from the north to northwest calming overnight both days.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow with very low temperatures.  Travel characteristics of the trajectories remain unsuitable for entrainment and travel. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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